It’s the time of the year when the BBWAA gets to vote on who gains entry into baseball’s hallowed halls.

The candidates are as follows: Roberto Alomar, Carlos Baerga, Jeff Bagwell, Harold Baines, Bert Blyleven, Bret Boone, Kevin Brown, John Franco, Juan Gonzalez, Marquis Grissom, Bobby Higginson, Charles Johnson, Barry Larkin, Al Leiter, Edgar Martinez, Tino Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Raul Mondesi, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, Dave Parker, Tim Raines, Kirk Rueter, Benito Santiago, Lee Smith, B.J. Surhoff, Alan Trammell, and Larry Walker.

Roberto Alomar: Alomar was a star defensive second baseman with a career AVG over .300, OBP over .370 and SLG over .440. His career 116 OPS+ as a second baseman with elite defense and over 10,000 PA is good enough for a 63 WAR, within the range of an acceptable Hall-of-Famer. Career stats: 210 HR, 1134 RBI, 474 SB, 2724 H, .300/.371/.443, 116 OPS+, 10400 PA, 63.5 WAR. Prediction: In in 2011

 

Carlos Baerga: Baerga was not that awesome a fielder with roughly thirty runs below average in the field over the course of his career. He was an average hitter for his career and played for roughly 6,000 PA, causing a decent amount of value to stem from so many plate appearances. He has no chance of getting in. Career stats: 134 HR, 774 RBI, 59 SB, 1583 H, .291/.332/.423, 100 OPS+, 5895 PA, 16.0 WAR. Prediction: 0-5 % in 2011

 

Jeff Bagwell: Bagwell was a good fielder, a good baserunner, and an awesome hitter. He was the best NL first baseman in the 1990s for sure- save Pujols, maybe the best NL first baseman ever. He was a career Astro, another point in his favor with the voters. He is the only 30-30 first baseman. He has everything going for him and has a good chance to make it with the voters. Career stats: 449 HR, 1529 RBI, 202 SB, 2314 H, .297/.408/.540, 149 OPS+, 9431 PA, 79.9 WAR. Prediction: In in 2012, 60-74.9 % in 2011

 

Harold Baines: Baines only played the field for a small portion of his career before he became a full-time Designated Hitter. He played for a long time but was never even great, with a career which looks like Vinny Testaverde- a good player for a long time, but never a 4 or 5 wins above replacement player for more than a year. A compiler at its best. In fact, Baines never even hit 4-WAR in one season. He is not really close to a Hall of Fame player. Career stats: 384 HR, 1628 RBI, 34 SB, 2866 H, .289/.356/.465, 120 OPS+, 11092 PA, 37.0 WAR. Prediction: 4-4.9 % in 2011

 

Bert Blyleven: Blyleven is one of the fifteen best pitchers in baseball history, in my opinion. Better than Nolan Ryan. Better than Juan Marichal. Better than Tom Glavine. Better than Jim Palmer. Better than Bob Feller. Only definitely behind Clemens, WJ, RJ, Maddux, Grove, Alexander, Mathewson, Seaver, Gibson, Spahn, Young, and Nichols. He didn’t get to 300 W so he’s not in yet but he should have been in first ballot, no doubt about it. He has the fifth most strikeouts ever behind Carlton, Johnson, Ryan, and Clemens, and, with sixty, is close to the top in shutouts as well. He was excellent at preventing runs over a career which spanned nearly 5,000 innings, and has a ridiculous career WAR yet isn’t a HoFer yet. He got so close in 2010 I’d think he’ll be in soon. There will be a writeup about Blyleven in the future. Career stats: 287 W, 3.31 ERA, 118 ERA+, 4970 IP, 3701 K, 90.1 WAR. Prediction: In in 2011

 

Bret Boone: Boone will be remembered for his years as a Mariner where he hit .277/.336/.478 over 3467 PA for a 116 OPS+. He won’t be remembered for hsi time elsewhere where he hit .257/.316/.414 for an 89 OPS+ over 3907 PA. That will be ignored, which is why you have to go off of the stats. If you hit the way he did in Seattle for an entire career you’re borderline Hall-worthy if you’re at a valuable position with good defense- you’re basically Alomar. But Boone fell off elsewhere and wasn’t a good hitter of defender. He might get some sympathy votes or some votes because he had over 250 Homers as a second baseman, but he’ll likely fall off of the ballot in one year. Career stats: 252 HR, 1021 RBI, 94 SB, 1775 H, .266/.325/.442, 101 OPS+, 7432 PA, 21.4 WAR. Prediction: 2-3 % in 2011

 

Kevin Brown: Brown is criminally underrated by almost everybody. He had a reputation as injury-prone, ineffective, overrated, and overpaid. He signed the first 100 MM contract with the Dodgers, a deal which ran 1999 through 2005. It is important to note when considering this that in 1998, the year before he signed the mega-deal, he had 8.4 WAR with a 2.38 ERA over 250+ IP. Brown was truly a great pitcher. Between 1989 and 2000 he pitched 170 or more innings every year, and the only two he didn’t pass 180 were strike seasons. He mad 375 stars over these twelve seasons, averaging 31 a year. He wasn’t durable? With a 130 ERA+ he was also quite dominant. His whole body of work, according to fangraphs, is one of the top-10 pitching careers value-wise ever. Baseball-reference isn’t as nice, but, he still ranks in the Hall of Fame zone with 63 WAR. He probably won’t get in but he’d be on my ballot of 10 players. Hopefully he remains on the ballot and voters in the future can fairly evaluate his career. Career stats: 211 W, 3.28 ERA, 127 ERA+, 3256.1 IP, 2397 K, 64.8 WAR. Prediction: In via VC. 10-13 % in 2011

 

John Franco: Franco was an elite closer for a long time, but closers don’t really add all that much value to a team. As a Mets fan, I want to support Franco, but he’s a closer and isn’t an extraordinary one at that. He has a good per inning career but closers don’t rack up many innings. I think I could see him garnering enough votes to remain on the ballot and if he makes it through the 2013/214 group I could see myself eventually voting for him. I guess for his position he’s elite, but how many closers do you let in? Smith is on the doorstep of getting in, and Franco is similar. Wilhelm, Fingers, Sutter, Gossage, Eckersley are in, and Rivera, Wagner, and Hoffman deserve it. That’s a lot a 20-30 WAR players. Career stats: 424 SV, 2.89 ERA, 138 ERA+, 1245.2 IP, 7 K/9, 25.8 WAR. Prediction: In in 2019, 20-25 % in 2011

 

Juan Gonzalez: He has the cool nickname, Juan Gone, and the feared reputation. He reminds me a LOT of Jim Rice. With Rice’s recent election, that probably bodes well for him especially since he has a better case in my opinion. Gonzalez has a lot of Home Runs and a Homer-happy peak. He has two MVPs on his record and the reputation as the co-face of the Rangers with Ivan Rodriguez in the 1990s. He is on the ballot with his teammate Raffy who has a better case on stats but has the steroid cloud. Juan Gone should get a decent portion of the vote, maybe 15-25 % of it but won’t get in this year, if he ever does. Career stats: 434 HR, 1404 RBI, 26 SB, 1936 H, .295/.343/.561, 132 OPS+, 7155 PA, 33.5 WAR. Prediction: 15-20 % in 2011

 

Marquis Grissom: Grissom was generally a bad hitter and an average fielder with good speed. He is one of those guys who has a counting-stat case that would be strengthened by the inclusion of someone like Al Oliver or Vada Pinson who he compares well in raw stats with. Once era is considered he falls off. Grissom just isn’t anything spectacular. Won’t be on the ballot in 2012 likely. Career stats: 227 HR, 967 RBI, 429 SB, 2251 H, .272/.318/.415, 92 OPS+, 8959 PA, 25.6 WAR. Prediction: 0-1 % in 2011

 

Bobby Higginson: Higginson was a very patient hitter which contributed to his solid .358 OBP. He was a sabermetric darling before sabermetrics with a decent AVG but good isolated numbers lading to a good OBP (.358) and good power (.455 SLG). Overall, b-ref has him as ten runs below average as a fielder, and fg has him at 32 runs below average as a fielder. b-ref gives him about 100 runs with the bat, fangraphs a little over 100. He has the career Tiger thing going for him but it won’t help, he’ll be one & done. Career stats: 187 HR, 709 RBI, 91 SB, 1336 H, .272/.358/.455, 113 OPS+, 5660 PA, 21.6 WAR. Prediction: 0-.5 % in 2011

 

Charles Johnson: Over a short career, Johnson was a patient catcher with good power (.188 IsoP). His career length is made up via one awesome season where he OPSed over .900 in a lot of PA. Johnson passed 3 WA that year reaching it for the second time in his career. The five-time Gold Glove Award winner saved 70 runs with his defense, contributing to a solid overall career WAR. Career stats: 167 HR, 570 RBI, 6 SB, 940 H, .245/.330/.433, 97 OPS+, 4385 PA, 22.0 WAR. Prediction: 0-.5 % in 2011

 

Barry Larkin: Larkin is another career player, playing all of his career with the Cincinnati Reds. He is an excellent hitter and fielder with power and discipline. He compares favorably to Jeter due to defense and a baserunning disparity. He is another very underrated player. There’s an outside chance Larkin gains entry in 2011 as he had a strong showing as a first year candidate with over 50 % of the vote. He definitely deserves it. Career stats: 198 HR, 960 RBI, 379 SB, 2340 H, .295/.371/.444, 116 OPS+, 9057 PA, 68.9 WAR. Prediction: In in 2012, 60-70 % in 2011

 

Al Leiter: Leiter has a much better case than most people realize. A good starter over a bunch of years accrues a lot of value. Leiter only racked up 122.1 innings over his first six partial seasons before he finally broke out in 1993 going 9-6 with a 106 ERA+ over 105 innings. He was REALLY good in ’98 when he had a 170 ERA+ and 6.5 WAR based on a 2.47 ERA. He probably isn’t Hall-worthy though although he at least has a case similar to Morris unbelievably. Career stats: 162 W, 3.80 ERA, 113 ERA+, 2391 IP, 1974 K, 38.8 WAR. Prediction: 4-7 % in 2011

 

Edgar Martinez: Martinez is likely the best designated hitter to ever set foot on a field. He is an incredible hitter, part of the illustrious .300/.400/.500 club. He got a late start so he doesn’t have ridiculous counting stats, but for a career under 9000 PA he has good counting stats. There is the position and defense issue- his hitting career is clearly HoF-worthy. But you can’t really penalize him more than you would a poor defensive first baseman a.k.a. Adam Dunn. In 1995, in fact, Martinez led the majors with a .479 OBP. From to 1995 to 2001 he had a wOBA over .400 each season. From 1990 to 2003 his wRC+ go as follows: 134, 140, 174, 111, 132, 188, 172, 168, 163, 164, 158, 158, 143, 143. He was an unbelievable hitter. His career stats: 309 HR, 1261 RBI, 49 SB, 2247 H, .312/.418/.515, 147 OPS+, 8672 PA, 67.2 WAR. Prediction: In in 2017, 45-50 % in 2011

 

Tino Martinez: Martinez is an overrated first baseman. He is credited with being a very good player- he was half the player Edgar was or Olerud was or McGriff or McGwire or Bagwell or Palmeiro was. Those are good first basemen. He was a semi-decent first baseman. He only had a wRC+ over 127 TWICE his entire career, meanwhile Edgar only fell BELOW 134 once during a fourteen season stretch from 1990 to 2003. He never had a wOBA over .400. Edgar did every year between 1995 and 2001. He has the repuation as a winner from his days with the Yankees, but he only had two seasons statistically similar to his 1995 with Seattle, and New York didn’t win the World Series in one of them. In fact, Tino never batted over .300, never had an OBP over .400 and only five times had a SLG over .500, three of which were below .510. Tino is a good player, but he’s overrated an nowhere near Hall-worthy. Career stats: 339 HR, 1271 RBI, 27 SB, 1925 H, .271/.344/.471, 112 OPS+, 8044 PA, 25.7 WAR. Prediction: 5-10 % in 2011  

 

Don Mattingly: Donnie Baseball is another overrated Yankees first baseman. At least Donnie had a good peak and the one-team thing going for him. From 1984 to 1989 Mattingly was a beast, accumulating 32.8 WAR in those six seasons. He didn’t add much of any value aside that stretch, however, and ended up with less than 40 WAR. Mattingly’s 1984 to 1989 stretch is almost entirely what his Hall case is built upon since he won hardware (1 MVP, placed second another time, 5 GG, 3 SS, two other top-10 MVP finishes, a 145-RBI season, 3 30-HR seasons, batted .300 all six seasons, drove in 100 five times, and slugged .500 four times). It was a masterful stretch. He was a whole different player come 1990- his OBP disappeared as did his AVG and power. He was a bad baseball player all of a sudden. I don’t think his masterful stretch quite cuts it and he’ll fall into limbo much like Steve Garvey did. Career stats: 222 HR, 1099 RBI, 14 SB, 2153 H, .307/.358/.471, 127 OPS+, 7721 PA, 39.8 WAR. Prediction: 8-12 % in 2011

 

Fred McGriff: The Crime Dog debuted on the ballot in 2010 with an okay showing, despite being under the 25 % threshold. He could pass that and maybe get to 30 in 2011, though it’s a slim chance. Regardless he almost definitely won’t fall off the ballot, something Mattingly is in danger of doing. He came up 10 hits shy of 2500 and 7 HR shy of 500 for his great career. If the 1994 strike hadn’t happened, McGriff likely would have reached 500 career bombsand 2500 career hits and would have a better chance of making the Hall of Fame. But Bagwell would not have won his MVP since he injured himself days before the strike. Career stats: 493 HR, 1550 RBI, 72 SB, 2490 H, .284/.377/.509, 134 OPS+, 10174 PA, 50.5 WAR. Predictions: In in 2020, 25-30 % in 2011

 

Mark McGwire: Big Mac is in his fifth try with the writers. With a boatload of Homers, under normal circumstances McGwire would be a lock for the Hall of Fame. But a steroid cloud taints McGwire’s accomplishments and makes him a gigantic question mark for the Hall of Fame. McGwire of course hit 70 HR in 1998 with a historic campaign. He spent half of his career as an Athletic and half as a Cardinal and if he were to get in, which team he became enshrined with is a good question. In 1998 he had 8.8 oWAR, a ridiculous amount. His 207 wRC+ and 216 OPS+ are phenomenal. His career stats: 583 HR, 1414 RBI, 12 SB, 1626 H, .263/.394/.588, 162 OPS+, 7660 PA, 63.1 WAR. Prediction: In via VC, 25-28 % in 2011

 

Raul Mondesi: Mondesi is a story of a player who was money early before literally spiralling downward from 31-34. His final four seasons combined for 1.5 WAR. Mondesi’s career path can be summed up by his WAR track and AVG track. He batted .299 his first five seasons, with 17.4 WAR. Then from 1998 to 2001 he batted .263 with 8.3 WAR down from a 3.5 WAR/year average to 2.1 WAR/year. He then plummetted to .375 WAR/year his final four years. Career stats: 271 HR, 860 RBI, 229 SB, 1589 H, .273/.331/.485, 5814 PA, 27.2 WAR 

 

Jack Morris: Morris is the best example of wins overstating the value of a player. Morris was not much better than Jamie Moyer or Frank Tanana or Dennis Martinez if he was at all, yet none of those three get HoF love and Morris is over 50 %. Despite his increased support, I think his percentage is going to stall at the 52.3 it reached in 2010, his eleventh try. He had 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. He was no chance in 2013 or 2014 with the 2013 group including surefire candidates Clemens, Bonds, Sosa, Lofton, Piazza, Biggio, and Schilling plus a few deserving candidates. In 2014 Maddux, Thomas, Kent, Glavine, Luis Gonzo, and Mussina enter the picture. He needs to get in before 2013 in that case, and he won’t make a 22.7 % jump in 2011 which leaves 2012. Ultimately I think he’l be waiting for the VC. Career stats: 254 W, 3.90 ERA, 105 ERA+, 3824 IP, 2478 K, 39.3 WAR. Prediction: 48-50 % in 2011, might get in via VC but probably not unless Moyer or Tanana or Martinez gets in.

 

Dale Murphy: Murphy was dominant in the early portion of the 1980s. Murphy doesn’t have an outstanding case for enshrinement. 400 HR would have made it better, but he came up just short of 400. He hit 7 WAR three times and 5 three other times. That’s an outstanding peak, and is his best chip for enshrinement. He OPS+ed 140 from ’80 to ’87 over 5222 PA. He fared better in the beginning of his candidacy on the BBWAA ballot, but his percent has been slipping lately. He could fall off this year with the plethora of deserving cases on the ballot. I count more than fifteen players with good cases. Career stats: 398 HR, 1266 RBI, 161 SB, 2111 H, .265/.346/.469, 121 OPS+, 9040 PA, 44.2 WAR. Prediction: 7-8 % in 2011

 

John Olerud: Olerud is another criminally underrated player. He’s arguably as deserving as Jim Rice was. He was an OBP machine, which is mainly why he’s so underrated. In 1993 Olerud topped the circuit with a .473 OBP, an absolutely ridiculous OBP. His .363/.473/.599 line that season was one of the best seasons of the pre-steroids 1990s (1990 to 1994). Fangraphs has him over 60 WAR, b-ref at almost 60. He’s arguably deserving. His career 133 wRC+ and 128 OPS+ are phenomenal figures from players with good defense and OBP-heavy slash lines. In his debut year he figures to get an undeservingly low amount of votes and possibly not make it to 2012. Career stats: 255 HR, 1230 RBI, 11 SB, 2239 H, .295/.398/.465, 128 OPS+, 9063 PA, 56.8 WAR. Prediction: 4-4.9 % in 2011

 

Rafael Palmeiro: Raffy is famous for collecting his 3000th hit just weeks before being suspended for steroid usage also just weeks after he testified he never used steroids. With over 3,000 H and over 500 HR, under normal circumstances he’d be a no-brainer for induction in 2011. He’s a guy who steadily collected his career WAR with a few big seasons in there. He’s there by sabermetric standards (12,000+ PA, 132 OPS+, 66 WAR) and by counting standards so what will keep him out almost definitely in 2011 is steroid suspicion. Career stats: 569 HR, 1835 RBI, 97 SB, 3020 H, .288/.371/.515, 132 OPS+, 12046 PA, 66 WAR. Prediction: 15-20 % in 2011

 

Dave Parker: Parker had his career destroyed by cocaine usage, much like Keith Hernandez. Parker has a career which seems Hall-worthy at first glance, maybe. He only had a few 100 RBI seasons completely destroying the almost 1500 RBI argument. His OBP was not special, even though his .290 AVG was. A lot about him screams HoFer on the surface but once you delve further, I don’t think he really qualifies. Less than 40 WAR is unspectacular. I think he continues a recent downward trend. It doesn’t matter. No matter what he’s done on the BBWAA ballot after 2011, and I think he’ll have a poor showing since there is a logjam and he’s not getting in regardless. Career stats: 339 HR, 1493 RBI, 154 SB, 2712 H, .290/.339/.471, 121 OPS+, 10184 PA, 37.8 WAR. Prediction: Less than 10 %, goes to VC and consistently gets 30 % of the VC vote.

 

Tim Raines: The Rock has a very convincing Hall of Fame case. He was basically a slightly lesser Rickey Henderson. By most measures he ranks as in the HoF zone with a great OBP, okay power, and a good AVG, a lot of steals, and good defense. He never hit a lot of HR but consistently had a SLG over .400. I think voters will begin to appreciate his skillset and realize not everybody can be Rickey soon. Career stats: 170 HR, 980 RBI, 808 SB, 2605 H, .294/.385/.425, 123 OPS+, 10359 PA, 64.6 WAR. Prediction: In in 2018, 35-40 % in 2011

 

Kirk Rueter: Rueter has one thing going for him I guess, he does have the most wins of and left-handed Giant ever. He really doesn’t have much of a case at all. He is 38 games above .500. A poor WHIP, a poor ERA, a below average ERA+, less than 2000 IP, below 150 W, the lowest WAR total of any of the candidates on the ballot right now. He doesn’t have a chance. Career stats: 130 W, 4.27 ERA, 98 ERA+, 1918 IP, 808 K, 12.1 WAR. Prediction: 0 %

 

Benito Santiago: Santiao had a reputation as a phenomenal fielder with power and a poor on base average, which is true. He had a .307 OBP and .263 AVG. Santiago has impressive power for a catcher. He had an okay prime, topping out at 3.2 WAR, but his overall career isn’t that great. He had 12.2 WAR his first five seasons. He he improved upon that he’d have some sort of case, but he didn’t. I’d be a bit surprised if he stayed on the ballot. Career stats: 217 HR, 920 RBI, 91 SB, 1830 H, .263/.307/.415, 93 OPS+, 7515 PA, 23.8 WAR. Predictions: 0-2 % in 2011

 

Lee Smith: Smith is much like Franco in that he was an elite closer for a long time but really didn’t add too much value to his teams because of the limited value a closer can add. I actually think Franco has a better case for enshrinement than Lee. Franco has fewer saves, 478 to 424, but only 44 fewer innings, 1289 to 1245, and has an ERA+ a good amount higher, 138 to 132. Smith struck batters out at a higher clip, and has roughly 30 career WAR, so he overall has a good case. He did have a 4.5 WAR season which strengthens his case significantly. I think he and Franco should see similar percentages of the vote. Either they’re both in the 30-50 range or both below 30. But Smith has seen a growing support group, so he’ll probably get in first, if either does at all. Career stats: 478 SV, 3.03 ERA, 132 ERA+, 1289.1 IP, 8.7 K/9, 30.3 WAR. Prediction: In via VC, 49-52 % in 2011

 

B.J. Surhoff: Surhoff had an okay average but didn’t walk a lot so racked up lots of hits- over 2300- and almost 200 HR with a lot of RBI. He peaked at 4.4 WAR, or a solid total, but not really for a HoFer. I don’t consider Surhoff really in contention, and his stats back my thinking. He peaked at a 120 OPS+ and a .870 OPS. His HR high was 28, a large percentage of his career HR total. Career stats: 188 HR, 1153 RBI, 141 SB, 2326 H, .282/.332/.413, 98 OPS+, 9106 PA, 34.4 WAR. Prediction: 1-2 % in 2011

 

Alan Trammell: Trammell is another criminally underrated player. He and Lou Whitaker are easily more deserving than most of the HoF players at their respective positions. Trammell is similar to Ozzie, Larkin, Cronin, Appling, and Jeter, in that middle group. Only Ripken, Vaughan, Rodriguez, and Wagner are clearly better. He was a great hitter, had that one outstanding season, was a great fielder, had a long enough career, and easily deserves the Hall as a shortstop. Hopefully his vote total increases a lot. Career stats: 185 HR, 1003 RBI, 236 SB, .285/.352/.415, 110 OPS+, 9375 PA, 66.9 WAR. Prediction: In via VC, 25-27 % in 2011

 

Larry Walker: Walker gets the short end of the stick with the Coors Effect. He performed exceptionally in Montreal and in St. Louis. He has great career rates with an awesome OPS+ and is an awesome fielder at a semi-valuable position. Walker has enough PA to be easily deserving. I hope he makes it one day, he definitely deserves it. Career stats: 383 HR, 1311 RBI, 230 SB, 2160 H, .313/.400/.565, 140 OPS+, 8030 PA, 67.3 WAR. Prediction: In in 2018, 30-35 % in 2011

 

In summary, since there’s a ten person limit, my ballot would include:

No-Brainers:

Bert Blyleven & Jeff Bagwell

The Steroid Kid:

Mark McGwire

The Shortstops:

Barry Larkin & Alan Trammell

The Coors Kid:

Larry Walker

The Spitter:

Roberto Alomar

The Speedster:

Tim Raines

The Puncher:

Kevin Brown

The Hitter: 

Edgar Martinez

 

If I had other spots on my ballot I’d strongly consider Franco & Smith, Murphy, Palmeiro, and Olerud. – Anthony  

 

This will consist of a section discussing whether Andre Dawson was a good choice for the Hall of Fame in 2010.

 

 

 

 

     Andre Nolan “Hawk” Dawson was a centerfielder and rightfielder for the Montreal Expos, Chicago Cubs, Florida Marlins, and Boston Red Sox from 1976 to 1996. Dawson’s career statistics include 2627 Games Played, 10769 Plate Appearances, 9927 At Bats, 1373 Runs Scored, 2774 Hits, 503 Doubles, 98 Triples, 438 Home Runs, 1591 Runs Batted In, 314 Stolen Bases, a .279 Batting Average, a .323 On Base Percentage, a .482 Slugging Percentage, 119 OPS+, 4787 Total Bases, 57.0 WAR, 216.4 BtRuns, 22.1 BtWins, 1490.1 wRC, 266.4 wRAA, a .352 wOBA, a 120 wRC+, and 59.6 WARP. He was an 8-time All Star, a Rookie of the Year, a MVP, an 8-time Gold Glover, and a 4-time Silver Slugger.

     Dawson’s career began in 1976. That season he hit .235/.278/.306 over 92 PA, some awful hitting. That’s a .259 wOBA, a pretty awful mark. With almost -0.5 WAR, Andre Dawson was obviosuly an unvaluable player. Dawson didn’t hit any HR and only drove in 7 runs. BtRuns has him at -4.5, batting runs above average at -4.0. Bottom line is it wasn’t a good season. In 1977, Andre Dawson batted .282/.326/.474, or roughly his career lines, or a 115 OPS+. He had 3.3 WAR that season, with 19 HR, 65 RBI, and 78.4 Weighted Runs Created.

     Dawson is known for a weak OBP, so it’s no surprise that he had as .299 OBP with a .442 SLG over 660 PA, a 112 wRC+ when speed is included. 1978 was a 4-WAR season, with 4.2. Now approaching 10 career WAR Dawson was making a name for himself. After a 3.2 WAR 1979, Dawson finally had a phenomenal season. In 638 PA in 1980, Andre Dawson hit .308/.358/.492 for a 136 OPS+, with 17 HR and 87 RBI, accruing 6.7 WAR, a career best up to that point. In 1981, Dawson enjoyed his finest season. He hit .302/.365/.553 for a 157 OPS+, a high. His 165 wRC+ was also a career best. He continued to be awesome in 1982 and 1983, enjoying an awesome four-season peak between 1980 and 1983.

     His best WAR season:

7.3

6.8

6.7

6.6

4.2

4.2

3.3

3.2

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.9

-.2

-.4

-.4

-.9

-1.1

     Dawson topped 6 WAR four times. He topped 7 once, and his 1987, which seems great by traditional standards (.287, 49 HR, 137 RBI), is his nith best by WAR.

     His best seasons were 1981 and 1982.

1981: .302/.365/.553, 441 PA, 24 HR, 64 RBI, 26/30 SB, 71 R, 119 H, 21 2B, 157 OPS+, 165 wRC+, .413 wOBA, 32.0 wRAA, 78.5 wRC, 7.3 WAR, and 9.3 WARP.

1982: .301/.343/.498, 660 PA, 23 HR, 83 RBI, 39/49 SB, 107 R, 183 H, 37 2B, 132 OPS+, 141 wRC+, .376 wOBA, 29.5 wRAA, 103.7 wRC, 6.8 WAR, and 7.3 WARP.

     Dawson had a nice career. His career line is impressive:

Career (’76-’96): .279/.323/.482, 119 OPS+, 10769 PA, 57.0 WAR, 59.6 WARP, 120 wRC+, .352 wOBA, 1490.1 wRC, and 266.4 wRAA.

 

Prime (’78-’88): .283/.328/.490, 125 OPS+, 6782 PA, 47.6 WAR, 47.5 WARP, 975.4 wRC, and 209.1 wRAA.

 

Absolute Peak (’80-’82): .304/.354/.510, 139 OPS+, 1739 PA, 20.8 WAR, 23.3 WARP, 282.5 wRC, and 90.3 wRAA.

 

Peak (’79-’83): .296/.341/.507, 133 OPS+, 3121 PA, 30.6 WAR, 31.3 WARP, 482.4 wRC, and 131.5 wRAA,

 

     Dawson was an All-Star in 1981, 1982, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, and 1991. He won a Gold Glove in 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1987, and 1988. He captured Silver Sluggers in 1980, 1981, 1983, and 1987. He won National League Rookie of the Year in 1977. He won it over Steve Henderson, Gene Richards, and Floyd Bannister. He pretty clearly deserved it over them. He was 18th in WAR in 1979 but 24th in the vote. Five candidates topped 6 WAR. The people who finished ahead of him were Keith Hernandez and Willie Stargell, who split the vote, Dave Winfield, Larry Parrish, Ray Knight, Joe Niekro, Bruce Sutter, Kent Tekulve, Dave Concepcion, Dave Parker, Dave Kingman, George Foster, Mike Schmidt, Steve Garvey, Omar Moreno, Pete Rose, Gary Carter, Bill Madlock, J.R. Richard, Phil Niekro, Joe Sambito, Tom Seaver, and Johnny Bench. Gary Templeton, Gary Matthews Sr., Dave Collins, and Bob Horner were behind him. I’d say Keith Hernandez was clearly more valuable than Willie Stargell with an OBP .065 higher over far more PA with better defense. Despite the slugging deficit, he was far more valuable. 

     In 1980, Dawson finished seventh in the MVP race, with a .308/.358/.492 line over 638 PA. Mike Schmidt unanimously won the MVP, beating out Gary Carter, Jose Cruz, Dusty Baker, and Steve Carlton in the top-5. Steve Garvey finished sixth. Behind Dawson were two players who beat him in WAR- Keith Hernandez and Dale Murphy-, two players who were within two WAR of him- Cesar Cedeno and Jack Clark-, and George Hendrick, Bob Horner, Bake McBride, Jim Bibby, Bill Buckner, Tug McGraw, Johnny Bench, Joe Niekro, Mike Easler, Jerry Reuss, Ken Griffey Sr., Ron LeFlore, Gene Richards, and Rodney Scott.

     In 1981, Dawson had only 441 PA, but hit at an astounding .413 wOBA clip, good for a 165 wRC+ and a 157 OPS+. He finished second in the MVP race behind Mike Schmidt. He finished second in WAR behind Schmidt, showing me he was a deserving second place choice. He had a more important position and played it better which is how he made up the difference between him and Schmidt in offense almost entirely. Behind both of them were five guys already in- Gary Carter, Bruce Sutter, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, and Nolan Ryan- one who has the stats to get in but isn’t in for other reasons- Pete Rose- and another who definitely deserves it- Tim Raines. Also behind him were George Foster, Dave Concepcion, Fernando Valenzuela, Dusty Baker, Bill Buckner, Gary Matthews Sr., Jose Cruz, George Hendrick, Bill Madlock, Art Howe, Rick Camp, Keith Hernandez, Tom Herr, Greg Minton, Warren Cromartie, Steve Garvey, and Milt May. In 1982, Dawson ended up tied for 21st. His WAR was third in the league behind Gary Carter and Mike Schmidt. Dale Murphy won the MVP with a 6.3 WAR. In second was Lonnie Smith, third Pedro Guerrero, fourth Al Oliver, and fifth Bruce Sutter. After that is Schmidt, Jack Clark, Greg Minton, Steve Carlton, Bill Buckner, Bill Madlock, Gary Carter, Ozzie Smith, George Hendrick, Terry Kennedy, Joe Morgan, Keith Hernandez, Jason Thompson, Joaquin Andujar, and Gene Garber. He tied with Fernando Valenzuela, and was ahead of Chris Chambliss, Gary Matthews Sr., and Ray Knight.

     In 1983, Dawson finished second once again, with the fifth best WAR this time. He had an almost equal AVG and SLG to the first place winner, Dale Murphy, but Murphy led him in WAR because of the .393-.338 OBP edge. Behind Dawson filling out the top-10 are Mike Schmidt, Pedro Guerrero, Tim Raines, Jose Cruz, Dickie Thon, Bill Madlock, Al Holland, Terry Kennedy, George Hendrick, Tony Pena, John Denny, Darrell Evans, Mario Soto, Rafael Ramirez, Jesse Orosco, Lee Smith, Al Oliver, Jeffrey Leonard, Jody Davis, Keith Hernandez, Bob Horner, Lonnie Smith, and Ozzie Smith. That group includes two Hall of Famers in Schmidt and Smith, two others in major contention in Raines and Lee Smith, four with good cases in Murphy, Hernandez, Oliver, and Evans, and a slew of okay players career-wise. Finishing near the top of this group is something mildly special.

     In 1987, Andre Dawson won MVP, beating out Ozzie Smith, Jack Clark, Tim Wallach, Will Clark, Darryl Strawberry, Tim Raines, Tony Gwynn, Eric Davis, Howard Johnson, Dale Murphy, Vince Coleman, Juan Samuel, Mike Schmidt, Pedro Guerrero, Steve Bedrosian, Milt Thompson, Bill Doran, and Terry Pendelton. Picking a random five players not named Bedrosian, I think they all have a better MVP case than Dawson. I’ll go with Smith, Clark, Raines, Gwynn, and Murphy.

Andre Dawson: 49 HR, 137 RBI, .287 AVG, .328 OBP, .568 SLG, 130 OPS+, 353 TB, 178 H, 662 PA, .378 wOBA, 128 wRC+, 3.3 WARP, 2.7 WAR

Ozzie Smith: 0 HR, 75 RBI, .303 AVG, .392 OBP, .383 SLG, 105 OPS+, 230 TB, 182 H, 706 PA, .357 wOBA, 121 wRC+, 8.5 WARP, 7.1 WAR

Will Clark: 35 HR, 91 RBI, .308 AVG, .371 OBP, .580 SLG, 152 OPS+, 307 TB, 163 H, 588 PA, .386 wOBA, 144 wRC+, 4.9 WARP, 4.6 WAR

Tim Raines: 18 HR, 68 RBI, 123 R, .330 AVG, .429 OBP, .526 SLG, 149 OPS+, 279 TB, 175 H, 627 PA, 50/55 SB, .419 wOBA, 161 wRC+, 7.7 WARP, 6.8 WAR

Tony Gwynn: 7 HR, 54 RBI, 119 R, .370 AVG, .447 OBP, .511 SLG, 158 OPS+, 301 TB, 218 H, 680 PA, 56/68 SB,.419 wOBA, 163 wRC+, 9.4 WARP, 8.1 WAR

Dale Murphy: 44 HR, 105 RBI, .295 AVG, .417 OBP, .580 SLG, 157 OPS+, 328 TB, 167 H, 693 PA, .415 wOBA, 153 wRC+, 8.4 WARP, 7.5 WAR

I’d say, based off of this, out of these six, Tony Gwynn was clearly the MVP, Dale Murphy was second, Tim Raines third, Ozzie Smith fourth, Will Clark fifth, and Andre Dawson, the actual winner, sixth or last.

     His top five’s:

G: 159, 157, 157, 155, 153

PA: 698, 684, 662, 660, 660

H: 189, 183, 179, 178, 178

2B: 41, 37, 36, 32, 31

R: 107, 104, 96, 90, 90

RBI: 137, 113, 104, 100, 92

HR: 49, 32, 31, 27, 25

SB: 39, 35, 34, 28, 26

BB: 44, 42, 41, 38, 37

AVG: .310, .308, .303, .302, .301

OBP: .365, .358, .358, .344, .343

SLG: .568, .553, .539, .535, .504

OPS+: 157, 141, 137, 136, 135

TB: 353, 341, 303, 299, 298

WAR: 7.3, 6.8, 6.7, 6.6, 4.2

WARP: 9.3, 7.3, 6.7, 5.6, 4.1

wOBA: .413, .385, .379, .378, .376

wRC+: 165, 141, 140, 139, 138

wRAA: 32.0, 30.2, 29.9, 29.5, 28.8

wRC: 110.1, 109.1, 103.7, 100.3, 97.5

VORP: 55.4, 50.9, 48.3, 48.2, 47.8

BtWins: 3.4, 3.0, 2.8, 2.8, 2.5

BtRuns: 33.1, 28.7, 28.0, 26.2, 24.7

     His metrics:

Black Ink: 11

Gray Ink: 164

HoF Monitor: 118

HoF Standards: 44

     His ten most similar players are Billy Williams, Tony Perez, Dave Parker, Al Kaline, Harold Baines, Luis Gonzalez, Ernie Banks, Dwight Evans, Dave Winfield, and Gary Sheffield. His age analysis:

22. Mel Hall

23. Colby Rasmus

24. Reggie Smith

25. Reggie Smith

26. Reggie Smith

27. Reggie Smith

28. Carlos Beltran

29. Reggie Smith

30. Dave Winfield

31. Vernon Wells

32. Carlos Beltran

33. Dave Winfield

34. Dave Winfield

35. Dave Winfield

36. Dave Winfield

37. Dave Winfield

38. Dave Winfield

39. Dave Winfield

40. Dave Winfield

41. Tony Perez

     Of his similar players:

Williams, Perez, Kaline, Banks, and Winfield are in. Parker and Baines are considered borderline, Gonzalez has little chance, Evans should be in, and Sheffield probably will be in.

KELTNER LIST: 

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

    I don’t think he was ever considered THE best in baseball. I’m sure people thought of him as among the best, but there is no season where he was the best.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

     The WAR leaders (top 5) for his team each season:

1976: Steve Rogers, Woodie Fryman, Don Stanhouse, Pepe Mangual, and Dale Murray

1977: Gary Carter, Steve Rogers, Andre Dawson, Ellis Valentine, and Tony Perez

1978: Gary Carter, Ellis Valentine, Steve Rogers, Andre Dawson, and Warren Cromartie

1979: Gary Carter, Larry Parrish, Steve Rogers, Andre Dawson, and Elias Sosa

1980: Andre Dawson, Gary Carter, Steve Rogers, Scott Sanderson, and Ellis Valentine

1981: Andre Dawson, Tim Raines, Gary Carter, Bill Gullickson, and Warren Cromartie

1982: Steve Rogers, Gary Carter, Andre Dawson, Al Oliver, and Jeff Reardon

1983: Gary Carter, Andre Dawson, Tim Raines, Steve Rogers, Bryn Smith

1984: Gary Carter, Tim Raines, Charlie Lea, Tim Wallach, and Dan Schatzeder

1985: Tim Raines, Tim Wallach, Vance Law, Joe Hesketh, and Bryn Smith

1986: Tim Raines, Hubie Brooks, Floyd Youmans, Andy McGaffigan, and Mitch Webster

1987: Rick Sutcliffe, Lee Smith, Scott Sanderson, Andre Dawson, and Steve Trout

1988: Greg Maddux, Andre Dawson, Ryne Sandberg, Rick Sutcliffe, and Jamie Moyer

1989: Ryne Sandberg, Greg Maddux, Mark Grace, Mike Bielecki, and Rick Sutcliffe

1990: Ryne Sandberg, Mike Harkey, Greg Maddux, Mark Grace, and Paul Assenmacher

1991: Ryne Sandberg, Greg Maddux, Andre Dawson, Mark Grace, and Hector Villanueva

1992: Greg Maddux, Ryne Sandberg, Mike Morgan, Mark Grace, and Andre Dawson

1993: Danny Darwin, John Valentin, Scott Flethcer, Frank Viola, and Mike Greenwell

1994: Roger Clemens, John Valentin, Aaron Sele, Mo Vaughn, and Ken Ryan

1995: Pat Rapp, Charles Johnson, Jeff Conine, Gary Sheffield, and Chris Hammond

1996: Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield, Al Leiter, Jeff Conine, and Edgar Renteria

     Dawson was top-5 on his team in WAR between 1977 and 1983, 1987 and 1988, and in 1991. I guess he was consistently one of the best players on his team.  

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

     He had to deal with Dale Murphy in most of the 1980s, and Murphy was at the very least Dawson’s equal, and probably his superior. Raines, Henderson and a few others were also superior outfielders at Dawson’s prime, and towards the beginning so were Rice, Lynn, Dewey Evans, and others. While he was a Cub, Darryl Strawberry was also a superior outfielder in his league. So I’d say no. 

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

     In the playoffs he batted .186/.238/.237 over 63 PA. He is a .276/.321/.483 hitter in September and October, almost identical to his .279/.323/.482 career line.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

     After his final 2-WAR season he played for another 1111 PA from 1993 to 1996, and before that had four years between 2 and 2.5 WAR after his final 4-WAR season. His basic career path was building himself up from ’76 to ’79, peaking from ’80 to ’83, being middling from ’84 to ’86, winning an undeserved MVP in ’87, putting together a good campaign in ’88, putting together four post-prime pre-decline seasons from ’89 to ’92 and four decline phase seasons from ’93 to ’96. He was good enough to play past his prime, for sure.    

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

     No, that is Bert Blyleven.

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

     His most similar case is probaby Bobby Bonds, Barry’s son, or Harold Baines or Dave Parker or even Dale Murphy. They are all the same type of player, quite similar to a Cepeda or Perez or Winfield without 3,000 H. All good, but I’d hardly say he is a lock by any means. Regardless, five of his “similar” players are in, and two others should be/will be, so I have to say yes.

8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

     He has a 118 on the HoF Monitor and 44 on HoF Standards, so yes.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

     None.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

     No, the best centerfielder is Jim Edmonds or Kenny Lofton. The best rightfielder is either Reggie Smith or Dwight Evans, although Sammy Sosa and Gary Sheffield both have better cases, as does Vlad Guerrero.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

     He was over 6-WAR four times including 7 once. He placed first once, second twice, and seventh once in MVP voting. Yes.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?

     He is a 8-time All Star.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

     I think probably. The early-1980 Expos teams probably could have won a World Series title or at least a pennant.    

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

     None. No. No. No.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

     As far as I can tell, definitely.

He gets a yes for 8 questions.

VERDICT: I think Andre Dawson is basically on the border, but in. He had those four 6-WAR seasons, which just puts him in for me. He had enough other 2-WAR years to climb the hill and get in. He’s in.

 

 

 

 

This blog will consist of an Alan Trammell section only.

 

 

 

 

     Alan Stuart Trammell was a shortstop for the Detroit Tigers from 1977 to 1996. Trammell’s career statistical line: 2293 Games Played, 9375 Plate Appearances, 8288 At Bats, 1231 Runs, 2365 Hits, 412 Doubles, 55 Triples, 185 Home Runs, 1003 Runs Batted In, 236 Stolen bases, 850 Walks, 873 Strikeouts, a .285 Batting Average, a .352 On Base Percentage, a .415 Slugging Percentage, a 110 OPS+, 3442 Total Bases, 66.9 WAR, 78.1 WARP, a 115 wRC+, a .343 wOBA, 168.6 wRAA, and 1238.6 wRC. He was a 6-time All Star, a 3-time Silver SLugger, and a 4-time Gold Glover. he was regularly overshadowed by Ozzie Smith, Barry Larkin, and Cal Ripken Jr. despite being around as good as them. And he was career Tiger for twenty seasons, similar to Larkin (Reds, 19), Ripken (Orioles, 21), and Smith (15 as a Cardinal).

     In 48 PA in ’77, Trammell hit .186/.255/.186. The 21 OPS+ clearly hurt his career rates a little bit that season. In just over 500 PA the next year, Trammell hit .268/.335/.339, for eight offensive runs below average. He shoed he doesn’t have incredible power, but has decent discipline. In 1979 he flashed a little more power and about the same plate discipline. His BB% fell from 8.9 to 8.3. He had a 17/14 SB/CS ratio, meaning he likely cost his team runs with his baserunning; baserunning runs says he cost his team two runs with his legs, but a bunch with his glove, the opposite of his reputation for his career. He finally began to show glimpses of being a quality hitter in 1980. He collected over 85 weighted runs created, which is almost fifteen weighted runs above average given his playing time. His 117 wRC+ is actually pretty good for a shortstop with an average glove. He hit.300/.376/.404 in ’80, enjoying his first 5-WAR season. He won his first gold glove, and was an all-star.

     In both 1981 and 1982, Alan struggled a little offensively batting .258/.333/.364 for a 95 OPS+. His fielding allots him 7.2 WAR between ’81 and ’82, a pretty darn good total. In 1983, Trammell enjoyed his finest season yet. He had his best WA yet at 5.7, and had a 144 wRC+, his highest thus far in his career. Trammel ended up with an up and down offensive career, finishing with a decent-enough batting average.

I made that comparison earlier about Ripken Jr. vs. Larkin vs. Ozzie, so let’s compare them:

Best WAR:

      Trammell–Larkin–Ripken–Smith

1         8.4    –  7.4  –  11.0  –  7.1

2         6.8    –  6.2  –   9.2   –  6.3

3         6.6    –  5.9  –  8.3    –  5.7

4         6.0    –  5.9  –  7.0    –  5.5

5         5.9    –  5.8  –  6.6    –  5.3

6         5.7    –  5.7  –  6.1    –  4.7

7         5.0    –  5.2  –  4.7    –  4.4

8         4.4    –  4.8  –  4.5    –  4.3

9         4.1    –  4.0  –  4.1    –  4.0

10       3.1    –  3.9  –  4.0    –  3.1

Total:  56.0  –  55.8 — 65.5   –  50.4

His peak and career WAR totals are in line with Barry Larkin and Ozzie Smith, but behind Cal Ripken Jr., a clear top-5 shortstop.

Trammell’s best two seasons are 1987 and 1990:

1987: .343 AVG, .402 OBP, .551 SLG, .953 OPS, 155 OPS+, 159 wRC+, .413 wOBA, 48.4 wRAA, 130.4 wRC, 8.4 WAR, 668 PA, 28 HR, 105 RBI, 109 R, 205 H, 34 2B, 3 3B, 329 TB

1990: .304 AVG, .377 OBP, .449 SLG, .826 OPS, 130 OPS+, 131 wRC+, .364 wOBA, 22.3 wRAA, 93.5 wRC, 6.8 WAR, 637 PA, 14 HR, 89 RBI, 71 R, 170 H, 37 2B, 3B, 251 TB

Trammell had a long, spread out prime, with lots of phenomenal 6 WAR seasons and 5 WAR seasons.

Career (’77-’96): .285/.352/.415, 110 OPS+, 9375 PA, 66.9 WAR, 78.1 WARP, 115 wRC+, .343 wOBA, 1238.6 wRC, 168.6 wRAA

 

Prime (’80-’90): .291/.359/.433, 119 OPS+, 6542 PA, 56.9 WAR, 69.3 WARP, 918.0 wRC, 179.7 wRAA

 

Absolute Peak (’86-’88): .311/.375/.497, 138 OPS+, 1844 PA, 20.3 WAR, 23.9 WARP, 304.3 wRC, 90.0 wRAA

 

Peak (’86-’90): .298/.365/.459, 127 OPS+, 2987 PA, 30.2 WAR, 33.6 WARP, 448.1 wRC, 107.5 wRAA

 

     Trammell was an all-star in 1980, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988, and 1990. He won a Gold Glove in ’80, ’81, ’83, and ’84. He won a Silver Slugger in ’87, ’88, and ’90. He ranked 4th in the 1978 American League Rookie of the Year race behind Lou Whitaker, Paul Molitor, and Carney Lansford. He tied Rich Gale. The winner, Lou Whitaker, led the five in WAR, tied for the lead in games played, led in AB, was 2nd in R, 2nd in H, 3rd in HR, 1st in RBI, 3rd in SB, 1st in BB, 2nd in AVG, 1st in OBP, 3rd in SLG, 2nd in OPS, and played the most valuable position besides Trammell’s shortstop. The voters did choose right, though. Trammell was 20th in the 1980 AL MVP race. He was CLEARLY behind George Brett, Rickey Henderson, Robin Yount, Willie Wilson, Cecil Cooper, and Willie Randolph. He was probably worse than Reggie Jackson, Tony Armas, and Ben Oglivie, three good hitters. I’d say Mike Norris was clearly more valuable as well. That puts Trammell eleventh. He was twelfth in WAR, ahead of Jackson, behind everybody I mentioned, Al Bumbry, and Buddy Bell. Tony Perez hilariously had a WAR below 0.0 and almost got as many votes as Trammell. The winner won and Trammell deserved top-15 but not top-10, so it shouldn’t alter his candidacy much.

     The 1981 MVP race was a weird one. The league-best WAR was only 7.0, which Rickey Henderson boasted. The strike threw a wrench in everything, costing many people of higher WAR totals- maybe Bobby Grich reaches some milestones. Rollie Fingers won the MVP, followed closely by Rickey Henderson and Dwight “Dewey” Evans. Only three candidates boasted a 6 WAR: Buddy Bell, Dwight Evans, and Rickey Henderson. Three others had a WAR over 5- Robin Yount, Bobby Grich, and Cecil Cooper. Five more had WAR over 4, and Rollie Fingers slotted in towards the bottom of this group with 4.1. Also in this group were Dwayne Murphy, Dave Stieb, Steve McCatty, and Tony Armas, who four-way split the HR title with Evans, Grich, and Murray. Seven guys got between 3.0 WAR and 3.9 WAR: Tom Paciorek, Carney Lansford, Eddie Murray, Jack Morris, Mike Hargrove, Steve Kemp, and Alan Trammell. Ten guys got votes with WARs below 3: Greg Luzinski, George Brett, Jerry Mumphrey, Bill Almon, Rich Gossage, Kirk Gibson, Dave Winfield, Dennis Martinez, Al Oliver, and Ken Singleton.

     In 1983, Trammell tied for 15th in the league in the MVP vote with Bob Stanley. The fourteen ahead of Trammell were winner Cal Ripken Jr., Eddie Murray, Carlton Fisk, Jim Rice, Cecil Cooper, Dan Quisenberry, Dave Winfield, Lou Whitaker, Lance Parrish, Harold Baines, WIllie Upshaw, Wade Boggs, LaMarr Hoyt, and Loyd Moseby. Behind him were Greg Luzinski, Robin Yount, Ted Simmons, Richard Dotson, Ron Guidry, Rudy Law, Jack Morris, Julio Cruz, Rickey Henderson, George Wright, and Tippy Martinez. I’d say four players were head and shoulders above Trammell: Cal Ripken Jr., Wade Boggs, Robin Yount, and Rickey Henderson. I’d also put Lou Whitaker and Eddie Murray above Trammell. I would also consider Lloyd Moseby, Jim Rice, and Dan Quisenberry above Trammell. Everybody else would be below Alan. 

     Trammell ranked 9th in 1984, behind Willie Hernandez, Kent Hrbek, Dan Quisenberry, Eddie Murray, Don Mattingly, Kirk Gibson, Tony Armas, and Dave Winfield. He was ahead of Willie Wilson, Dwight Evans, Alvin Davis, Harold Baines, Dave Kingman, Jim Rice, Lance Parrish, Willie Upshaw, Brian Downing, Steve Balboni, George Bell, Andre Thornton, Buddy Bell, Lloyd Moseby, Dave Stieb, Juan Beniquez, Mike Boddicker, Doyle Alexander, and Cal Ripken Jr. Amazingly, the guy who got one vote- Ripken Jr.- and was the defending AL MVP, led the league in WAR at 9.2. Dave Stieb ranked second at 7.7, and Eddie Murray third. Then came Trammell. The group of players Trammell had a higher WAR then has some huge name players: Don Mattingly, Buddy Bell (higher career WAR than Andre Dawson), Dave Winfield, Kent Hrbek, Kirk Gibson, Dwight Evans, Harold Baines, Dan Quisenberry, Dave Kingman, Lance Parrish, Tony Armas, and Jim Rice.

     In 1987, Alan Trammell ranked 2nd, behind George Bell, and ahead of amazing players such as Kirby Puckett, Dwight Evans, Paul Molitor, Mark McGwire, Don Mattingly, Tony Fernandez, Wade Boggs, Gary Gaetti, Jeff Reardon, Darrell Evans, Doyle Alexander, Tom Henke, Wally Joyner, Kent Hrbek, Danny Tartabull, Robin Yount, Roger Clemens, Jack Morris, Kevin Sietzer, Ruben Sierra, Jose Canseco, and Matt Nokes. He was a serious MVP-contender that year and was easily the best AL shortstop. I would have him 2nd in my balloting behind Wade Boggs. 

     In 1988, Trammell was 7th, behind Jose Canseco, Mike Greenwell, Kirby Puckett, Dave Winfield, Dennis Eckersley, and Wade Boggs. He was ahead of Paul Molitor, Dwight Evans, Frank Viola, Robin Yount, George Brett, Dave Henderson, Bruce Hurst, Doug Jones, Jeff Reardon, Fred McGriff, Rickey Henderson, Mark McGwire, Joe Carter, Lee Smith, Gary Gaetti, Dan Plesac, Dave Stewart, Julio Franco, and Tony Fernandez. Trammell probably finished higher than he should have, finishing above Viola, McGriff, and both Hendersons, but behind Dennis Eckersley and Dave Winfield. His 6 WAR is a borderline great total, and was way behind Wade Boggs’ WAR but way ahead of Dennis Eckersley’s sub-3 WAR.

    Trammell ranked 19th in the MVP vote in 1990, behind Rickey Henderson, Cecil Fielder, Roger Clemens, Kelly Gruber, Bobby Thigpen, Dennis Eckersley, George Brett, Dave Stewart, Bob Welch, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Jose Canseco, Ellis Burks, Rafael Palmeiro, Carlton Fisk, Dave Parker, Ozzie Guillen, Jody Reed, and Ken Griffey Jr. He was ahead of Tony Pena, Wade Boggs, Doug Jones, Cal Ripken Jr., Nolan Ryan, and Dave Stieb. Trammell was 4th in WAR behind Ripken, Clemens, and Rickey Henderson. 

His top five’s:

G: 157, 151, 151, 149, 146

PA: 677, 668, 653, 652, 637

H: 205, 174, 170, 168, 161

2B: 37, 34, 34, 34, 33

3B: 7, 7, 6, 5, 5

HR: 28, 21, 15, 14, 14

RBI: 105, 89, 75, 69, 69

R: 109, 107, 107, 85, 83

SB: 30, 25, 21, 19, 19

AVG: .343, .329, .319, 314, .311

OBP: .402, .388, .385, .382, .377

SLG: .551, .496, .471, .469, .468

wOBA: .413, .388, .386, .378, .367

wRC+: 159, 144, 142, 139, 139

OPS+: 155, 138, 138, 137, 135

WAR: 8.4, 6.8, 6.6, 6.0, 5.9

wRAA: 48.4, 30.2, 29.1, 22.3, 22.0

wRC: 130.4, 99.0, 95.9, 94.9, 93.5

WARP: 10.0, 8.4, 7.9, 7.9, 6.6

     His metrics:

Black Ink: 0

Gray Ink: 48

HoF Monitor: 118

HoF Standards: 40

     His ten most similar players are Barry Larkin, Edgar Renteria, Jay Bell, Lou Whitaker, Ray Durham, Tony Fernandez, B.J. Surhoff, Ryne Sandberg, Pee Wee Reese, and Julio Franco. His age analysis:

21. Mark Koenig

22. Edgar Renteria

23. Edgar Renteria

24. Buddy Kerr

25. Edgar Renteria

26. Edgar Renteria

27. Jim Fregosi

28. Jim Fregosi

29. Edgar Renteria

30. Edgar Renteria

31. Edgar Renteria

32. Edgar Renteria

33. Edgar Renteria

34. Jay Bell

35. Jay Bell

36. Craig Biggio

37. Jay Bell

38. Barry Larkin

Larkin should and will make the Hall of Fame, Biggio should and will, and none of the others were particularly great fielders in the age analysis, so Trammell has the edge on them all. He’s a similar batter to two Hall-of-Famers and two more should-be-Hall of Famers.

KELTNER LIST:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

    It was never suggested, but he was closer than most think throughout his career.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

     The WAR leaders (top 3) for his team each season:

1977: Dave Rozema, Fernando Arroyo, and Jason Thompson

1978: Jason Thompson, Dave Rozema, and Ron LeFlore

1979: Jack Morris, Lou Whitaker, and Aurelio Lopez

1980: Alan Trammell, Steve Kemp, and Dan Schatzeder

1981: Jack Morris, Lou Whitaker, and Alan Trammell

1982: Lou Whitaker, Lance Parrish, and Alan Trammell

1983: Lou Whitaker, Alan Trammell, and Chet Lemon

1984: Alan Trammell, Chet Lemon, and Kirk Gibson

1985: Jack Morris, Kirk Gibson, and Dan Petry

1986: Alan Trammell, Jack Morris, and Lou Whitaker

1987: Alan Trammell, Darrell Evans, and Jack Morris

1988: Alan Trammell, Jeff Robinson, and Lou Whitaker

1989: Lou Whitaker, Alan Trammell, and Frank Tanana

1990: Alan Trammell, Cecil Fielder, and Tony Phillips

1991: Lou Whitaker, Mickey Tettleton, and Tony Phillips

1992: Mickey Tettleton, Tony Phillips, and Lou Whitaker

1993: Tony Phillips, Travis Fryman, and Alan Trammell

1994: Tony Phillips, Lou Whitaker, and David Wells

1995: David Wells, Travis Fryman, and Felipe Lira

1996: Bobby Higginson, Omar Olivares, and Felipe Lira

     I think it’s clear Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker were consistently the best Tigers, so Trammell gets a resounding yes. 

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

     He played alongside Cal Ripken Jr. in the American League, but was up there with Ripken. In most eras he would have been the best shortstop in tje Majors, but Ripken is a top-4 shortstop ever. Trammell competed with Ripken most seasons and was up there with him, so I’ll go with a yes. 

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

     He impacted several playoff races, so yes.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

     He played for almost 800 PA following his final 4-WAR season but I say his prime ended after 1990, so he played six post-prime seasons. Yes.

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

     No, that is Bert Blyleven.

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

     Barry Larkin and Lou Whitaker are very similar cases to Trammell, and two of his comps are in. His comps don’t account for his stellar defense, and most guys are a little outside, so I’ll still say yes.

8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

     He scores a 40 on that, which is a little on the low side, but acceptable, and he passes the Hall of Fame Monitor.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

     He played from ’77-’96, so he was in a relatively neutral era.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

     Maybe. Barry Larkin and Bill Dahlen are similarly qualified, and Derek Jeter isn’t eligible and will be in as soon as he’s eligible.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

     He ranked 2nd, 7th, 9th, and in the teens a few times. He topped 5.9 WA five total times, including one year over 8 WAR. Yes.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?

     He is a 6-time All Star.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

     Most definitely.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

     No.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

     As far as I can tell, definitely.

He gets a great total of 10 yesses.

VERDICT: In my Hall of Fame, Alan Trammell breezes through. He was a very good offensive shortstop, and a very good defensive shortstop, had a high peak, was a one team player, with a decently long career, and reaches 65 WAR. He’s in.

 

 

 

Career WAR for a Shortstop:

Honus Wagner

Alex Rodriguez

George Davis

Cal Ripken Jr.

Robin Yount

Bill Dahlen

Arky Vaughan

Derek Jeter

Luke Appling

Barry Larkin

Alan Trammell

Pee Wee Reese

Ozzie Smith

Ernie Banks

Joe Cronin

Bobby Wallace

I’d like to see someone argue against the Hall of Fame case for any of these shortstops save A-Rod and steroids. Trammell is in selective company as the guys on the list would be the top-15 shortstops by career WAR if Trammell wasn’t there. Of course Dahlen, Larkin, Jeter, and A-Rod aren’t in yet but is there any doubt they’ll be joining the other eleven in the Hall?

 

IN: Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Jose Canseco, Harold Baines, Mark McGwire, Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken Jr., Will Clark, Albert Belle, Orel Hershiser, Wade Boggs, Dave Stieb, Dennis Martinez, Dennis Eckersley, Paul Molitor, Lee Smith, Ryne Sandberg, Eddie Murray, Alan Trammell 

 

 

BORDER 1(I could change my mind still): Andres Galaragga, Robin Ventura, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, David Cone, Mark Grace, Robb Nen, Rod Beck, Bret Saberhagen, Paul O’Neill, John Wetteland, Dwight Gooden, Chili Davis, Darryl Strawberry

 

 

BORDER 2(They aren’t out yet, but their chances of convincing me are bleak): Kevin Appier, Ellis Burks, Ray Lankford, Eric Karros, Dan Plesac, David Justice, Chuck Finley, Ken Caminiti, Bobby Bonilla, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Tony Phillips, Doug Jones, Rick Aguilera, Randy Myers, Cecil Fielder, Kevin Mitchell, Jimmy Key, Joe Carter, Mickey Tettleton, Danny Tartabull, Darren Daulton, Tony Pena, Brett Butler, Fernando Valenzuela, Tim Wallach, Lenny Dykstra, Frank Viola

 

 

OUT: Andy Ashby, , Dave Burba, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Mark McLemore, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Fernando Vina, Todd Zeile, Greg Vaughn, Ron Gant, Jesse Orosco, Jay Bell, Jose Rijo, Brady Anderson, Todd Stottlemyre, Chuck Knoblauch, Shawon Dunston, Travis Fryman, Bobby Witt, Devon White, Wally Joyner, Scott Brosius, Jay Buhner, Dante Bichette, Ramon Martinez, Alex Fernandez, Gary DiSarcina, Walt Weiss, Gregg Jeffries, Gary Gaetti, Hal Morris, Ozzie Guillen, Otis Nixon, Mark Langston, Terry Steinbach, Jeff Montgomery, Jack McDowell, Jim Abbott, Willie McGee, Bob Tewksbury, Danny Darwin, Terry Pendleton, Juan Samuel, Doug Drabek, Jim Eisenreich, Todd Worrell, Mitch Williams, Danny Jackson, Mark Davis, Rick Honeycutt, Sid Fernandez, Vince Coleman, Darryl Kile, Robby Thompson, Scott Sanderson, Jeff Russell, Mike Henneman, Mike Greenwell

 

              -Anthony

 

This blog will consist solely of a Mike Greenwell section.

 

 

 

 

 

      Michael Lewis “Gator” Greenwell was a leftfielder for the Boston Red Sox from 1985 to 1996. His career statistical resume consists of 1269 Games, 5166 Plate Appearances, 4623 At Bats, 657 Runs, 1400 Hits, 275 Doubles, 38 Triples, 130 Home Runs, 726 Runs Batted In, 80 Stolen Bases, a .303 batting average, a .368 on base percentage, a .463 slugging average, an .831 OPS, a 120 OPS+, 2141 Total Bases, 23.5 WAR, 135.4 BtRuns, 13.2 BtWins, a .065 IsoD, a .160 IsoP, a 123 wRC+, a .363 wOBA, 167.1 wRAA, 768.3 wRC, and 20.3 WARP. Greenwell was a 2-time All Star, finished 2nd in the 1988 AL MVP race, 4th in the 1987 AL Rookie of the Year hunt, and won a Silver Slugger.

     Greenwell was given 34 PA in 1985, his first big-league action. He hit .323 in the ABs he was given, a fine average. In 40 PA the following season his power plummeted and he was merely okay. In 1987, Greenwell erupted- he batted .328/.386/.570 for a 147 OPS+. Much of that value centered around 31 doubles, a total which might be helped by Fenway Park’s double-friendly dimensions. Greenwell has 19 HR and 89 RBI, and was worth 3.7 WAR overall, 3.1 WAR offensively roughly, a negative half win due to left-field, and 1.5 WAR for replacement level.

     Greenwell had a break-out, MVP-caliber year in 1988. He batted .325/.416/.531 over 693 PA for a 159 OPS+, 162 wRC+, and 7.2 WAR. This was by far Mike’s finest season, as he hit 22 HR, drove in 119 runs, scored 86, reached safely on a hit 192 times, had 39 doubles, 8 triples, and 313 total bases. His sabermetric stats include the aforementioned 7.2 WAR, 127.5 wRC, 51.9 wRAA, and a .411 wOBA. WARP gives him a 6.8, and fangraphs’ WAR a 8.4. I’d say he was around a 7, as both WARP and WAR rate him within 0.2 WAR of 7.0 WAR. He is also rated as a very good fielder, with thirteen runs saved, by far his best total.

     In 1989 Greenwell slowed down big-time, with a .443 slugging percentage. He still batted .308 with a .370 on base percentage, but the power disappeared, going from a .242 IsoP to a .206 IsoP to a .135 IsoP between ’87 and ’89. His 3.3 WAR is solid, as are his 92.4 wRC and his 128 wRC+. His .360 wOBA is pretty good, and his raw stats are okay; 14 HR, 95 RBI, 87 R, 13 SB, 256 TB. In 1990 he declined a little bit more, regressing to a .297/.367/.434 line over 682 PA- a 119 OPS+ and a 118 wRC+. He’s credited with just over 2 WAR (2.1) with 65 BB. He rarely stikes out, with just 43 Ks in almost 700 PA. His numbers dropped again in 1991, this time to .300/.350/.419 over 598 PA, a 108 OPS+ and 112 wRC+. He drove in another 83 runs with 9 HR, and his stats look similar to BJ Upton’s 2008: 9 HR, 67 RBI, a 108 OPS+.

     He witnessed an extreme collapse in 1992- just 2 HR in 202 PA, 101 PA/HR. His line fell tremendously to .233/.307/.278, good for a .269 wOBA and a 62 wRC+. His WAR was -0.9. Following a good 1993, Greenwell slowed to the finish, hitting .288/.345/.452 over roughly 1200 PA between ’94 and ’96. In 1993, Greenwell hit .315/.379/.480 for a 125 OPS+. His .373 wOBA is a very good wOBA, and he produced 94.6 wRC. His best seasons were 1987 and 1988:

1987: .328 AVG, .386 OBP, .570 SLG, .956 OPS, 147 OPS+, 150 wRC+, .406 wOBA, 30.4 wRAA, 86.4 wRC, 3.7 WAR, 456 PA, 19 HR, 89 RBI, 71 R, 135 H, 31 2B, 6 3B, 235 TB

1988: .325 AVG, .416 OBP, .531 SLG, .947 OPS, 159 OPS+, 162 wRC+, .411 wOBA, 51.9 wRAA, 127.5 wRC, 7.2 WAR, 693 PA, 22 HR, 119 RBI, 86 R, 192 H, 39 2B, 8 3B, 313 TB

Here are Greenwell’s career, absolute peak, peak, and prime lines:

Career (’85-’96): .303/.368/.463, 120 OPS+, 5166 PA, 23.5 WAR, 20.3 WARP, 123 wRC+, .363 wOBA, 768.3 wRC, 167.1 wRAA

 

Prime (’86-’95): .303/.370/.463, 122 OPS+, 4814 PA, 23.3 WAR, 19.8 WARP, 615.2 wRC, 159.8 wRAA

 

Absolute Peak (’87-’89): .320/.392/.509, 143 OPS+, 1790 PA, 14.2 WAR, 10.5 WARP, 306.3 wRC, 105 wRAA

 

Peak (’87-’91): .311/.378/.474, 131 OPS+, 3070 PA, 17.8 WAR, 15.4 WARP, 479.8 wRC, 134.8 wRAA

 

     Greenwell was an All-Star in 1988 and 1989. He won a Silver Slugger in 1988. He finished 4th in the Rookie of the Year vote in 1987, behind Mark McGwire, Kevin Sietzer, and Matt Nokes, but ahead of Devon White, Mike Henneman, and Nelson Liriano. A quick statistical glance at the seven candidates:

McGwire: 1B, STL, .289/.370/.618, 49 HR, 151 G, 5.4 WAR

Sietzer: 3B, KCR, .323/.399/.470, 15 HR, 161 G, 4.3 WAR

Nokes: C, DET, .289/.345/.536, 32 HR, 135 G, 3.1 WAR

Greenwell: LF, BOS, .328/.386/.570, 19 HR, 125 G, 3.7 WAR

White: CF, CAL, .263/.306/.443, 24 HR, 159 G, 5.0 WAR

Henneman: P, DET, 2.98 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 96.2 IP, 11 W, 1.6 WAR

Liriano: 2B, TOR, .241/.310/.342, 2 HR, 37 G, 0.6 WAR

     So clearly McGwire deserved it, especially with the uncertainty surrounding White’s WAR considering the reliability of defensive statistics. In 1988, Greenwell was in the MVP hunt and might have deserved it, might have not:

-He was third in RBI, 10th in HR, 7th in SB, 2nd in BB, 3rd in AVG, 2nd in OBP, and 5th in SLG. His 7.2 WAR placed him behind only Jose Canseco and Wade Boggs. He had fewer votes than Jose Canseco and more than Kirby Puckett, Dave Winfield, Dennis Eckersley, Wade Boggs, Alan Trammell, Paul Molitor, Dwight Evans, Frank Viola, Robin Yount, George Brett, Dave Henderson, Bruce Hurst, Doug Jones, Jeff Reardon, Fred McGriff, Rickey Henderson, Mark McGwire, Joe Carter, Lee Smith, Gary Gaetti, Dan Plesac, Dave Stewart, Julio Franco, and Tony Fernandez. 

     Of these, Henderson, Brett, Yount, Molitor, Boggs, Eckersley, Winfield, and Puckett are in the Hall of Fame. Canseco has 462 HR and is borderline, Trammell is a story for another day, McGriff may get in some day, McGwire has 583 HR and should get in, Lee Smith might get in, and Dwight Evans is definitely a story for another day. 

His top five’s:

G: 159, 158, 147, 146, 145

PA: 693, 682, 641, 603, 598

R: 87, 86, 77, 76, 71

H: 192, 181, 178, 170, 163

2B: 39, 38, 36, 31, 30

RBI: 119, 95, 89, 83, 76

HR: 22, 19, 15, 14, 14

AVG: .328, .325, .315, .308, .300

OBP: .416, .386, .379, .370, .367

SLG: .570, .531, .480, .459, .443

OPS+: 159, 147, 125, 123, 119

wRC+: 162, 150, 128, 125, 118

wRAA: 51.9, 30.4, 22.7, 22.5, 17.9

wOBA: .411, .406, .373, .360, .353

wRC: 127.5, 94.6, 94.1, 92.4, 86.4

WAR: 7.2, 3.7, 3.4, 3.3, 2.6

WARP: 6.8, 4.2, 3.2, 2.4, 1.7

TB: 313, 265, 259, 256, 235

     His metrics:

Black Ink: 0

Gray Ink: 45

HoF Monitor: 32

HoF Standards: 23

     His ten most similar players are Dmitri Young, John Stone, Rusty Greer, Carl Reynolds, Bruce Campbell, Irish Meusel, Sean Casey, Bibb Falk, Wally Moon, and David Segui. His age analysis:

24. Bob Meusel

25. Chick Hafey

26. Dave Parker

27. Tommy Davis

28. John Stone

29. Sean Casey

30. Bob Watson

31. Bob Watson

32. Bob Watson

KELTNER LIST:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

     It might have been suggested during his amazing 1988 campaign, but likely not. That was his only year over 4 WAR, so it was a fluky year anyway.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

     The WAR leaders (top 3) for his team each season:

1985: Wade Boggs, Oil Can Boyd, and Rich Gedman

1986: Wade Boggs, Roger Clemens, and Jim Rice

1987: Wade Boggs, Roger Clemens, and Dwight Evans

1988: Wade Boggs, Mike Greenwell, and Roger Clemens

1989: Wade Boggs, Roger Clemens, and Ellis Burks

1990: Roger Clemens, Mike Boddicker, and Tom Bolton

1991: Roger Clemens, Wade Boggs, and Jody Reed

1992: Roger Clemens, Frank Viola, and Greg Harris

1993: Danny Darwin, John Valentin, and Scott Fletcher

1994: Roger Clemens, John Valentin, and Aaron Sele

1995: John Valentin, Tim Wakefield, and Tim Naehring

1996: Roger Clemens, Mo Vaughn, and Heathcliff Slocumb

Greenwell was top-3 on Boston in WAR once, in 1988. He wasn’t a top Red Sox player between ’85 and ’96. 

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

     He played in the same era as Jim Rice for a few years, who was far superior, and then in the same era as up and coming Manny Ramirez, not to mention stolen base king Rickey Henderson. He was never the best leftfielder in the AL. 

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

     He had very little impact of pennant races.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

     Not really, no. He had 1103 PA after his final prime season. He had 2.6 WAR though in those PA, so I guess he gets this point.

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

     No.

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

     None are.

8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

     No.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

     He didn’t really play much in the steroid era, so no.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

     Definitely not.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

     He had 1 MVP-type season, in 1988, with over 7 WAR. He didn’t win it either.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?

     He is a 2-time All Star.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

     I believe a Greenwell-led team could capture a pennant.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

     No.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

     As far as I can tell, yes

He gets 3 points.

VERDICT: Mike Greenwell is a career Red Sox which HoF voters like, but I don’t think he had a good enough career to make my Hall of Fame. In fact, he didn’t have anything great happen in his career besides five things. 100 RBI once, two time All Star, 7 WAR season once, Silver Slugger, and career Red Sox player. So he doesn’t make it.

 

IN: Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Jose Canseco, Harold Baines, Mark McGwire, Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken Jr., Will Clark, Albert Belle, Orel Hershiser, Wade Boggs, Dave Stieb, Dennis Martinez, Dennis Eckersley, Paul Molitor, Lee Smith, Ryne Sandberg, Eddie Murray 

 

 

BORDER 1(I could change my mind still): Andres Galaragga, Robin Ventura, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, David Cone, Mark Grace, Robb Nen, Rod Beck, Bret Saberhagen, Paul O’Neill, John Wetteland, Dwight Gooden, Chili Davis, Darryl Strawberry

 

 

BORDER 2(They aren’t out yet, but their chances of convincing me are bleak): Kevin Appier, Ellis Burks, Ray Lankford, Eric Karros, Dan Plesac, David Justice, Chuck Finley, Ken Caminiti, Bobby Bonilla, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Tony Phillips, Doug Jones, Rick Aguilera, Randy Myers, Cecil Fielder, Kevin Mitchell, Jimmy Key, Joe Carter, Mickey Tettleton, Danny Tartabull, Darren Daulton, Tony Pena, Brett Butler, Fernando Valenzuela, Tim Wallach, Lenny Dykstra, Frank Viola

 

 

OUT: Andy Ashby, , Dave Burba, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Mark McLemore, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Fernando Vina, Todd Zeile, Greg Vaughn, Ron Gant, Jesse Orosco, Jay Bell, Jose Rijo, Brady Anderson, Todd Stottlemyre, Chuck Knoblauch, Shawon Dunston, Travis Fryman, Bobby Witt, Devon White, Wally Joyner, Scott Brosius, Jay Buhner, Dante Bichette, Ramon Martinez, Alex Fernandez, Gary DiSarcina, Walt Weiss, Gregg Jeffries, Gary Gaetti, Hal Morris, Ozzie Guillen, Otis Nixon, Mark Langston, Terry Steinbach, Jeff Montgomery, Jack McDowell, Jim Abbott, Willie McGee, Bob Tewksbury, Danny Darwin, Terry Pendleton, Juan Samuel, Doug Drabek, Jim Eisenreich, Todd Worrell, Mitch Williams, Danny Jackson, Mark Davis, Rick Honeycutt, Sid Fernandez, Vince Coleman, Darryl Kile, Robby Thompson, Scott Sanderson, Jeff Russell, Mike Henneman, Mike Greenwell

 

         -Anthony

This blog will consist of a Frank Viola section and a Minnesota Twins 1980′s section.

 

 

 

 

     Frank John Viola was a starting pitcher for the Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, and Cincinnati Reds from 1982 to 1996. For his career, Viola had 176 Wins and 150 Losses, a .540 winning percentage. His career 3.73 ERA isn’t phenomenal for his era and translates to only a 112 ERA+. Over 2836.1 innings that’s surely a great career. His career WHIP is 1.301, his K/9 5.9, his BB/9 2.7, his K/BB 2.13. As far as counting statistics he had the aforementioned 2836.1 innings, 1844 strikeouts, gave up 2827 hits in 2836.1 innings, with one relief appearance, 420 starts, 74 complete games, 16 shutouts, 43.9 WAR, a 3.81 FIP, and 49.8 WARP. He was a 3-time All Star, won a Cy Young and placed well two other times, placing well in the MVP vote once. His Mets career was underrated with 10 WAR over two and a third seasons.

     In 1982, the Twins gave Viola a shot, and he had a seasons similar to what Brian Matusz is doing right now- 130 or so innings and an ERA hovering around 5.00. Matusz is 5-12 so far, Viola was 4-10. Viola had an 84/38 K/BB with a 5.21 ERA over 126 IP. His FIP was 4.56. Since his career BABIP was .292, the .324 posted in 1982 shows he may have been getting a little unlucky. That season was worth -0.3 WAR. In 1983 his ERA rose as did his FIP, to 5.08 and 5.49. He tossed over 200 innings for the first time, allowing a league-high 128 earned runs with just 127 strikeouts. Viola was 11-25 through his first two seasons.

     1984 was Frank’s first good season. He boasted a 131 ERA+ with a 1.157 WHIP over 257.2 innings. That’s good for a 4.1 WAR, raising his career WAR to 2.9. In 1985 Viola’s ERA rose above 4.00 and his WAR dropped a lot. His 1.316 WHIP was close to his career WHIP, and his 107 ERA+ was in the neighborhood of his career ERA+. In ’86 Viola’s ERA rose again and his ERA+ dropped to 95. He had a higher K/BB than in ’85, but worse results.

     1987 was Viola’s first ace-type season. He had a career-best WAR of 7.6, a season which warrants MVP consideration. His ERA was 2.90, his ERA+ 159, and his WHIP 1.176. He pitched about 250 innings again. Viola’s IP totals are eerily similar from year to year, topping at 261 and bottoming out at 245 between ’84 and ’90. In ’89 he split time between the AL and NL with the Mets and Twins. His finest three seasons (’87, ’88, and ’90):

1987: 17 W, 10 L, 2.90 ERA, 159 ERA+, 1.176 WHIP, 7.6 WAR, 7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 251.2 IP

1988: 24 W, 7 L, 2.64 ERA, 154 ERA+, 1.136 WHIP, 7.0 WAR, 6.8 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 255.1 IP

1990: 20 W, 12 L, 2.67 ERA, 141 ERA+, 1.150 WHIP, 6.3 WAR, 6.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 249.2 IP

Here are Viola’s career lines, five year peak lines, three-year absolute peak, and ten-year prime:

Career (’82-’96): 176-150, 3.73 ERA, 112 ERA+, 1.301 WHIP, 43.9 WAR, 5.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

Prime (’84-’93): 153-120, 3.42 ERA, 122 ERA+, 1.249 WHIP, 45.4 WAR, 5.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9

5-yr Peak (’87-’91): 87-61, 3.16 ERA, 127 ERA+, 1.206 WHIP, 27.2 WAR, 6.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9

3-yr Peak (’87-89): 54-34, 3.07 ERA, 136 ERA+, 1.180 WHIP, 18.2 WAR, 7.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9

 

     Viola was an All-Star in 1988, 1990, and 1991. In 1984 he was 6th in the Cy Young vote. The winner, Willie Hernandez, had 140 IP with an ERA slightly under 2.00. Dan Quisenberry followed, Bert Blyleven third, Mike Boddicker 4th, and Dan Petry 5th. Jack Morris and Dave Stieb tied for seventh.

The WAR list for these eight candidates:

Dave Stieb, 7.7

Bert Blyleven, 6.2

Willie Hernandez, 4.8

Mike Boddicker, 4.7

Frank Viola, 4.1

Dan Quisenberry, 3.2

Dan Petry, 3.2

Jack Morris, 2.3

In 1987, Viola was 6th again, this time behind Roger Clemens, Jimmy Key, Dave Stewart, Doyle Alexander, and Mark Langston. He was tied with Teddy Higuera and ahead of Jeff Reardon and Jack Morris. Viola was second in WAR behind Clemens’ 8.4. Viola has 7.6, Key 6.6, Higuera 6.1, Langston 5.4, Morris 4.9, Stewart 4.2, Alexander 3.9, and Reardon 0.8. Viola’s 1987 was clearly Cy-caliber, but Roger Clemens had an MVP-caliber season and won the Cy Young. Viola won the AL Cy Young in 1988, finishing ahead of Dennis Eckersley, Mark Gubicza, Dave Stewart, Bruce Hurst, and Roger Clemens. As far as WAR:

7+ WAR: Gubicza (7.3) and Viola (7.0)

5-6.9 WAR: Clemens (6.7)

4-4.9 WAR: Stewart (4.2)

2-3.9 WAR: Hurst (3.1) and Eckersley (2.4)

In 1990, Frank Viola finished third in the Cy Young voting, behind Doug Drabek and Ramon Martinez but ahead of Dwight Gooden and Randy Myers. Viola was the WAR leader at 6.3, with the other four candidates between 2.7 (Dwight Gooden) and 4.2 (Doug Drabek with Ramon Martinez (4.1) and Randy Myers (3.1) in between. Viola should be ahead of the pack here, but isn’t. In 1988, he was 10th in the AL MVP vote behind Jose Canseco, Mike Greenwell, Kirby Puckett, Dave Winfield, Dennis Eckersley, Wade Boggs, Alan Trammell, Paul Molitor, and Dwight Evans, ahead of Robin Yount, George Brett, Dave Henderson, Bruce Hurst, Doug Jones, Jeff Reardon, Fred McGriff, Rickey Henderson, Mark McGwire, Joe Carter, Lee Smith, Gary Gaetti, Dan Plesac, Dave Stewart, Julio Franco, and Tony Fernandez. His 7.0 WAR, though, was fifth.

The WAR breakdown:

8+: Wade Boggs 

7+: Jose Canseco, Kirby Puckett, Mike Greenwell, and Frank Viola

6+: Rickey Henderson, Dave Henderson, Fred McGriff, and Alan Trammell

5+: Robin Yount, Dave Winfield, George Brett, and Paul Molitor

4+: Dave Stewart and Gary Gaetti

3+: Tony Fernandez, Doug Jones, Joe Carter, Bruce Hurst, and Dwight Evans

2+: Mark McGwire, Jeff Reardon, Dennis Eckersley, and Julio Franco

1+: Dan Plesac and Lee Smith 

     His top five’s, with 150 IP for rates:

W: 24, 20, 18, 18, 17

ERA: 2.64, 2.67, 2.90, 3.14, 3.21

GS: 37, 36, 36, 36, 35

IP: 261.0, 257.2, 255.1, 251.2, 250.2

K: 211, 197, 193, 191, 182

ERA+: 159, 154, 148, 141, 131

WHIP: 1.136, 1.150, 1.157, 1.176, 1.226

WAR: 7.6, 7.0, 6.3, 6.1, 4.1

FIP: 2.88, 2.95, 3.66, 3.69, 3.79

K/9: 7.3, 7.0, 7.0, 6.8, 6.6

K/BB: 3.57, 3.03, 2.98, 2.85, 2.44

     His metrics:

Black Ink: 12

Gray Ink: 127

HoF Monitor: 69

HoF Standards: 24

     His ten most similar players are Ken Holtzman, Mike Flanagan, Kevin Appier, Paul Splittorff, Fernando Valenzuela, Bob Forsch, Dave Stieb, Jim Lonborg, Rick Sutcliffe, and Doug Drabek. His age analysis:

22. Bill George

23. Glendon Rusch

24. Randy Wolf

25. Steve Trout

26. Brad Radke

27. Steve Avery

28. Alex Fernandez

29. Jerry Reuss

30. Dennis Eckersley

31. Dennis Eckersley

32. Dennis Eckersley

33. Ken Holtzman

34. Jerry Reuss

35. Jerry Reuss

36. Dennis Martinez

KELTNER LIST:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

     Frank Viola was never the best player in the league nor was he ever considered to be so. 

2. Was he the best player on his team?

     A quick WAR analysis for his teams, top five players by WAR each season (Pitchers by specifically WAR)

1982: Tom Brunansky (5.0), Gary Ward (4.7), Kent Hrbek (3.1), Bobby Castillo (2.9) and Albert Williams (1.7)

1983: John Castino (4.0), Gary Ward (3.5), Ken Schrom (3.0), Kent Hrbek (2.9) and Gary Gaetti (2.7)

1984: Kent Hrbek (5.4), Frank Viola (4.1), Tim Teufel (3.5), Mickey Hatcher (3.2), and Gary Gaetti (2.9)

1985: Kent Hrbek (2.5), Bert Blyleven (2.3), Mike Smithson (2.2), Kirby Puckett (2.1) and Gary Gaetti (2.1)

1986: Gary Gaetti (5.3), Kirby Puckett (5.0), Bert Blyleven (3.8), Kent Hrbek (2.5) and Frank Viola (2.4)

1987: Frank Viola (7.6), Kirby Puckett (4.4), Bert Blyleven (4.1), Greg Gagne (4.1) and Kent Hrbek (4.0)

1988: Kirby Puckett (7.2), Frank Viola (7.0), Allan Anderson (4.9), Kent Hrbek (4.2), and Gary Gaetti (4.2)

1989: Howard Johnson (7.7), Darryl Strawberry (4.5), Kirby Puckett (4.3), Kevin McReynolds (3.9) and Greg Gagne (3.5)

1990: Darryl Strawberry (6.5), Frank Viola (6.3), Dave Magadan (5.3), Kevin McReynolds (4.2), and David Cone (3.7)

1991: David Cone (4.2), Howard Johnson (4.1), Dwight Gooden (3.1), Frank Viola (2.7), and Dave Magadan (1.5)

1992: Roger Clemens (7.9), Frank Viola (6.1), Greg Harris (2.9), Danny Darwin (2.6), and Wade Boggs (2.2)

1993: Danny Darwin (5.1), John Valentin (4.8), Scott Fletcher (4.4), Frank Viola (4.0), and Mike Greenwell (3.4)

1994: Roger Clemens (5.9), John Valentin (4.3), Aaron Sele (3.2), Mo Vaughn (2.4), and Ken Ryan (2.2)

1995: Reggie Sanders (6.7), Barry Larkin (5.9), Pete Schourek (3.7), Ron Gant (3.3), and John Smiley (3.1)

1996: Pat Hentgen (8.4), Juan Guzman (6.5), Ed Sprague (2.4), Tim Crabtree (2.0), and John Olerud (1.9)

     He was amongst the top players on his team in ’84, ’87, ’88, ’90, ’91, ’92, and ’93. I’d say he was the best player on his team for a while. 

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

     I think he was the top AL pitcher between ’87 and ’88 and was the best NL pitcher in 1990 and a top pitcher in 1992.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

     While he was a Twin he took part in one real pennant race where he had a significant impact, pitching for a 1.88 ERA over 43 IP. In 1990 with the Mets in it he pitched 51 innings of 2.45 ERA ball. Those were his only two real pennant races and he had significant impacts both times.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

  He pitched 75 total IP over three seasons after his final good year (1993).

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

     No, that would be pitcher Bert Blyleven.

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

     None are.

8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

     Not at all.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

     No.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

     Bert Blyleven.  

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

     He placed 10th in the MVP race in 1988, and that was it, although he had 6+ WAR four times.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?

     He was a 3-time All Star.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

     His 7.6 WAR was best on the 1987 World Series Champion Twins. 

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

     No.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

     As far as I can tell, yes

Frank gets 6 points.

VERDICT: Frank Viola was a valuable pitcher over a solid fifteen-year career. His last three years were bad, so his long, ten-year prime accounts for all of his value (-1.5 WAR aside from that ten-year prime). I don’t really think he makes it but I could be convinced.

 

 

 

 

     Minnesota Twins 1980′s Team

C: Mark Bruce Salas; 1985-1987; Salas had a very successful ’85 with 2.1 WAR. He hit .300/.332/.458 for the season over 382 PA, a nice little season for a catcher. His .320/.440 OBP/SLG split as a Twin was solid over 700+ PA.

1B: Kent Allen Hrbek; 1981-1989; Hrbek was a good first baseman with decent on base skills and very good power. During the eighties, Kent hit .290/.368/.496 for a 132 OPS+ over 4767 PA, with 201 HR out of his 293 career HR, and 27.9 of his 35.3 career WAR. Hrbek was also part of the trio with Puckett and Gaetti that dominated Minnesota in the ’80′s.

2B: Stephen Paul Lombardozzi; 1985-1988; Lombardozzi had three serviceable seasons and one of replacement-level play. He ended up with 3.4 WAR as a Twin.

3B: Gary Joseph “The Rat” Gaetti; 1981-1989; Gaetti ended up with an average-ish career slash line, but had a .186 IsoP in the ’80s. If you take out ’86 and ’88 he’s not so good, since he hit for a .865 OPS one year and a .905 OPS the other, but including them he had a .756 OPS in the decade, with all four of his Gold Gloves.

SS: Gregory Carpenter Gagne; 1983-1989; Gagne was known as a slick fielder, it’s how he kept a job despite his 85 OPS+ in the eighties. He ended up with 9.3 WAR for the decade despite two awful slash seasons in ’83 and ’84 where he totalled a -35 OPS+. 

OF: Kirby Puckett; 1984-1989; Puckett was great between ’86 and ’89- he batted .339/.372/.520 with 879 H and 1351 TB. He was a slick fielder with good baserunning skills, decent on base skills, and decent power from a premium offensive position.

OF: Thomas Andrew Brunansky; 1982-1988; In 1982, Tom hit .272/.377/.471 for a .199 IsoP and .105 IsoD over 545 PA. That’s worth 5 WAR. His total net worth offensively was 15.7 WAR in seven seasons, and he ended up batting .250/.330/.452 as a Twin for a .202 IsoP. 

OF: Michael Vaughn Hatcher; 1981-1986; hatcher had 2.5 total WAR with Minnesota: -.8, -1.8, 1.8, 3.2, 0.0, and 0.1. That’s six years of .284/.315/.383/.698/89. 

SP: Rik Aalbert “Bert” Blyleven; 1985-1988; Blyleven is probably the most deserving player not in the Hall of Fame. He’s better than Nolan Ryan. With over 90 WAR he’s MORE than qualified for the Hall. In the eighties as a Twin he was worth 9.3 WAR. He went 50-48. He WAS averageish.

SP: Frank John Viola; 1982-1989; Viola won a Cy Young and had TWO 7 WAR seasons as a Twin, years of 7.6 and 7.0. He is more than qualified for this list as the 1980′s ace. He had 24.5 total WAR as a Twin and a 111 ERA+. 

SP: Billy Mike Smithson; 1984-1987; Smithson had 4.1 WAR with a 97 ERA+ and ~800 IP. He was a below-average starter with a high WHIP and high ERA.

SP: Kenneth Marvin Schrom; 1983-1985; Schrom pitched roughly 500 innings of 99 ERA+/1.400 WHIP ball, worth 2.9 WAR.

RP: Jeffrey James “The Terminator” Reardon; 1987-1989; Reardon, a hefty reliever with a great arm, pitched to a 116 ERA+ as a Twin, including one year with a 165 ERA+. He had 104 SV (34.7 per year) with 226 IP (75.3 per year). 

MAN: Jay Thomas Kelly; 1986-1989; 268-241. One World Championship. First once, second once, fifth once, sixth once. Tom Kelly, either the best or second best Twins manager ever, save Ron Gardenhire.

 

IN: Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Jose Canseco, Harold Baines, Mark McGwire, Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken Jr., Will Clark, Albert Belle, Orel Hershiser, Wade Boggs, Dave Stieb, Dennis Martinez, Dennis Eckersley, Paul Molitor, Lee Smith, Ryne Sandberg, Eddie Murray 

 

 

BORDER 1(I could change my mind still): Andres Galaragga, Robin Ventura, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, David Cone, Mark Grace, Robb Nen, Rod Beck, Bret Saberhagen, Paul O’Neill, John Wetteland, Dwight Gooden, Chili Davis, Darryl Strawberry

 

 

BORDER 2(They aren’t out yet, but their chances of convincing me are bleak): Kevin Appier, Ellis Burks, Ray Lankford, Eric Karros, Dan Plesac, David Justice, Chuck Finley, Ken Caminiti, Bobby Bonilla, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Tony Phillips, Doug Jones, Rick Aguilera, Randy Myers, Cecil Fielder, Kevin Mitchell, Jimmy Key, Joe Carter, Mickey Tettleton, Danny Tartabull, Darren Daulton, Tony Pena, Brett Butler, Fernando Valenzuela, Tim Wallach, Lenny Dykstra, Frank Viola

 

 

OUT: Andy Ashby, , Dave Burba, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Mark McLemore, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Fernando Vina, Todd Zeile, Greg Vaughn, Ron Gant, Jesse Orosco, Jay Bell, Jose Rijo, Brady Anderson, Todd Stottlemyre, Chuck Knoblauch, Shawon Dunston, Travis Fryman, Bobby Witt, Devon White, Wally Joyner, Scott Brosius, Jay Buhner, Dante Bichette, Ramon Martinez, Alex Fernandez, Gary DiSarcina, Walt Weiss, Gregg Jeffries, Gary Gaetti, Hal Morris, Ozzie Guillen, Otis Nixon, Mark Langston, Terry Steinbach, Jeff Montgomery, Jack McDowell, Jim Abbott, Willie McGee, Bob Tewksbury, Danny Darwin, Terry Pendleton, Juan Samuel, Doug Drabek, Jim Eisenreich, Todd Worrell, Mitch Williams, Danny Jackson, Mark Davis, Rick Honeycutt, Sid Fernandez, Vince Coleman, Darryl Kile, Robby Thompson, Scott Sanderson, Jeff Russell, Mike Henneman

 

                  -Anthony

This blog will consist of a Lenny Dykstra section and a Philadelphia Phillies Top Five Centerfielders section.

 

 

 

 

     Leonard Kyle “Nails” Dykstra was a centerfielder for the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets from 1985 to 1996. Dykstra had a career stat line of 1278 Games, 5282 Plate Appearances, 4559 At Bats, 802 Runs, 1298 Hits, 281 Doubles, 43 Triples, 81 Home Runs, 404 Runs Batted In, 285 Stolen Bases, 72 Caught Stealing, a .285 Batting Average, a .375 On Base Percentage, a .419 Slugging Percentage, a .793 OPS, a 120 OPS+, 1908 Total Bases, 41.5 WAR, 779.7 wRC, a 127 wRC+, a .362 wOBA, 46 Fielding Runs, 167.6 wRAA, and 50.5 WARP. Dykstra rates as a valuable hitter and fielder, at a valuable position. Dykstra was a 3-time All-Star.  

     Dykstra began his career as a free-swinging, powerless lead-off hitter for the New York Mets in 1985. That year Dykstra had a .254/.338/.331 slash line. A true powerless hitter, having a slightly higher OBP than SLG. WAR gave him 1.7, a solid total for a rookie. He was 15/17 in SB with 1 HR. In 1986, Dykstra hit .295/.377/.445 over 498 PA with slightly above average defense for a 4.9 WAR. The Mets won the World Series, and Dykstra had significant contributions to that run: hitting .300/.352/.540 for the entire playoff run over 56 PA, a very good contribution when grouped with above average centerfield defense.

     After his 129 OPS+ season in 1986, Dykstra hit .285/.352/.455 in 1987. His OBP dropped significantly and his SLG rose ever so slightly, which is especially bad since Dykstra was a leadoff hitter who wanted to get on base in front of Darryl Strawberry and Keith Hernandez, and even Gary Carter. His 125 wRC+ was pretty good, and he accumulated 3.8 WAR, a pretty solid total. Nails struggled in 1988 and 1989, combining half a season as a Phillie with his time as a Met batting .252/.319/.369 over 1050 PA. Even good defense couldn’t save him from He accumulated 5.3 WAR due to his fielding over the two seasons, having 3 batting runs, 9 baserunning runs, and five fielding runs.

     Dykstra became a really good ballplayer in 1990, by far his best season. Lenny batted .325/.418/.441 in 1990, good for a 138 OPS+ and 148 wRC+. His .393 wOBA is phenomenal for a plus-defensive centerfielder. Dysktra even peaked defensively with twenty-five defensive runs, an absolutely amazing total. His 192 hits and .418 OBP both led the league. He accrued 8.3 WAR, a total that threw him into MVP conversations. Between his offense and defense he was worth 58 runs. His position made that 60 runs, his total baserunning 63, the replacement level 80. Lenny peaked from 1990 to 1993, batting .310/.407/.447 over that span with a 136 OPS+, stellar defense, and 124/150 in stolen base attempts. He had 20.7 WAR between 1990 and 1993, another great point averaging about 5.2 per season.

     In terms of career WAR, Dykstra’s 41.5 ties him with Jim Rice, just behind Jose Canseco, Paul Hines, Phil Rizzuto, Andy Van Slyke, and Roger Bresnahan, but just ahead of Adrian Beltre, Devon White, Ben Chapman, and Chuck Knoblauch. That’s a solid group to be within. Bresnahan, Rice, and Rizzuto are in. Hines is another debate because of his era, White is all fielding, Beltre could make it some day because of his counting statistics, and the others are in Dykstra’s boat. I evaluate players by four methods: career, three-year absolute peak, five year peak, and ten year prime. For Dykstra:

Career: .285/.375/.419, 120 OPS+, 5282 PA, 41.5 WAR, 50.5 WARP, 127 wRC+, .362 wOBA, 779.7 wRC, 167.6 wRAA

 

Prime of ’86-’95: .287/.376/.423, 121 OPS+, 4845 PA, 36.5 WAR, 46.5 WARP, 724.2 wRC, 164.2 wRAA

 

Absolute Peak of ’90-’92: .312/.400/.428, 132 OPS+, 1367 PA, 14.1 WAR, 17.2 WARP, 220.8 wRC, 67.2 wRAA

 

Peak of ’90-’94: .304/.407/.445, 133 OPS+, 2526 PA, 23.2 WAR, 29.9 WARP, 422.5 wRC, 129.7 wRAA

 

His best two seasons are 1990 and 1993:

1990: 149 G, 691 PA, 590 AB, 106 R, 192 H, 35 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 60 RBI, 33/38 SB, .325 AVG, .418 OBP, .441 SLG, 138 OPS+, 148 wRC+, 8.3 WAR, 10.0 WARP, .393 wOBA, 39.5 wRAA, 116.7 wRC, and 260 TB.

 

1993: 161 G, 773 PA, 637 AB, 143 R, 194 H, 44 2B, 6 3B, 19 HR, 66 RBI, 37/49 SB, .305 AVG, .420 OBP, .482 SLG, 143 OPS+, 148 wRC+, 6.6 WAR, 8.2 WARP, .404 wOBA, 48.2 wRAA, 140.5 wRC, and 307 TB.

     Dykstra was an All-Star in 1990, 1994, and 1995. He won a Silver Slugger in 1993. He placed in the MVP vote in 1986, 1990, and 1993. In 1986, Dykstra placed 19th. He was 9th in WAR, though. In the actual vote he was behind Mike Schmidt, Glenn Davis, Gary Carter, Keith Hernandez, Dave Parker, Tim Raines, Kevin Bass, Von Hayes, Tony Gwynn, Mike Scott, Bill Doran, Eric Davis, Steve Sax, Ray Knight, Mike Krukow, Todd Worrell, Roger McDowell, Dave Smith, and Fernando Valenzuela. He was ahead of Bob Ojeda, Candy Maldonado, and Dale Murphy. The stats of the 23 candidates:

Mike Scott: 7.4 WAR, 18-10, 2.22 ERA, 0.923 WHIP, 275.1 IP, 306 K/ 72 BB

Mike Schmidt: 6.6 WAR, .290/.390/.547, 37 HR, 119 RBI, 552 AB

Tony Gwynn: 6.2 WAR, .329/.381/.467, 107 R, 211 H, 642 AB

Fernando Valenzuela: 6.0 WAR, 21-11, 3.14 ERA, 1.155 WHIP, 269.1 IP, 242 K/ 85 BB

Keith Hernandez: 5.6 WAR, .310/.413/.446, 83 RBI, 94 R, 551 AB

Tim Raines: 5.3 WAR, .334/.413/.476, 70 SB, 194 H, 580 AB

Eric Davis: 5.2 WAR, .277/.378/.523, 27 HR, 97 R, 71 RBI, 415 AB

Von Hayes: 5.0 WAR, .305/.379/.480, 98 RBI, 107 R, 610 AB

Lenny Dykstra: 4.9 WAR, .295/.377/.445, 31 SB, 77 R, 431 AB

Steve Sax: 4.6 WAR, .332/.390/.441, 91 R, 210 H, 633 AB

Kevin Bass: 4.6 WAR, .311/.357/.486, 20 HR, 184 H, 591 AB

Bob Ojeda: 4.2 WAR, 18-5, 2.57 ERA, 1.090 WHIP, 217.1 IP, 148 K/ 52 BB 

Glenn Davis: 4.1 WAR, .265/.344/.493, 31 HR, 101 RBI, 574 AB

Gary Carter: 3.8 WAR, .255/.337/.439, 24 HR, 105 RBI, 490 AB

Mike Krukow: 3.4 WAR, 20-9, 3.05 ERA, 1.057 WHIP, 245.0 IP, 178 K/ 55 BB

Todd Worrell: 3.0 WAR, 36 SV, 9-10, 2.08 ERA, 103.2 IP, 73 K/ 41 BB

Ray Knight: 2.6 WAR, .298/.351/.424, 76 RBI, 145 H, 486 AB

Bill Doran: 2.6 WAR, .276/.368/.373, 92 R, 152 H, 550 AB

Roger McDowell: 1.7 WAR, 14-9, 22 SV, 128.0 IP, 1.164 WHIP, 65 K/ 42 BB

Candy Maldonado: 1.6 WAR, .252/.289/.477, 18 HR, 85 RBI, 405 AB

Dale Murphy: 1.3 WAR, .265/.347/.477, 29 HR, 83 RBI, 614 AB

Dave Smith: 1.3 WAR, 2.73 ERA, 33 SV, 4-7, 46 K/ 22 BB 

Dave Parker: 0.1 WAR, .273/.330/.477, 31 HR, 117 RBI, 637 AB

     The guy who finished fifth in the vote- Dave Parker- had 0.1 WAR, but the guy who finished 10th, Mike Scott, had the highest WAR amongst ranked players. In 1990, Dykstra finished 9th, behind Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonilla, Darryl Strawberry, Ryne Sandberg, Eddie Murray, Matt Williams, Barry Larkin, and Doug Drabek; ahead of Tim Wallach, Kevin Mitchell, Eric Davis, Chris Sabo, Ron Gant, Dwight Gooden, Ramon Martinez, Randy Myers, Joe Carter, Jose Rijo, Andre Dawson, Paul O’Neill, Dave Magadan, Benito Santiago, Brett Butler, David Justice, Pedro Guerrero, Andy Van Slyke, and Kal Daniels. All that needs to be said is the fact that seven people ranked betwen Bonds and Dykstra. Bonds was first in WAR with 97; Dykstra was second with 8.3. Some famous, HoF-caliber names behind Dykstra in WAR include Ryne Sandberg, Darryl Strawberry, Eddie Murray, Barry Larkin, Brett Butler, Matt Williams, Bobby Bonilla, Dwight Gooden, David Justice, Eric Davis, Andre Dawson, Paul O’Neill, Pedro Guerrero, and Joe Carter.

     In 1993, Dykstra did finishs econd in the vote. Barry Bonds won, and the guys behind Dykstra were David Justice, Fred McGriff, Ron Gant, Matt Williams, Darren Daulton, Marquis Grissom, Mike Piazza, Andres Galarraga, Gregg Jeffries, Rod Beck, Greg Maddux, Bryan Harvey, Robby Thompson, Jeff Blauser, John Kruk, Mark Grace, Jay Bell, Jeff Bagwell, Tony Gwynn, Randy Myers, Jose Rijo, John Burkett, Tom Glavine, and John Wetteland. In that group there are some Hall of Fame locks- namely Bonds, Glavine, Bagwell, Piazza, Gwynn, and Maddux- a few borderline guys- namely Wetteland, Grace, McGriff, Galarraga, and Williams- and a few guys who have some shot.

     His top five’s, with rate stats needing 400 PA except 1994 because of the strike:

WAR: 8.3, 6.6, 4.9, 3.8, 3.3

HR: 19, 10, 9, 8, 8

RBI: 66, 60, 45, 43, 39

R: 143, 106, 86, 77, 68

H: 194, 192, 127, 123, 121 

SB: 37, 33, 31, 30, 30

AVG: .325, .305, .295, .285, .273 

OBP: .420, .418, .404, .377, .352

SLG: .482, .455, .445, .441, .435

OPS+: 143, 138, 129, 118, 117

wRC+: 148, 148, 142, 125, 124

wOBA: .404, .393, .375, .371, .357

wRAA: 48.2, 39.5, 21.6, 15.0, 14.7

wRC: 140.5, 116.7, 79.0, 71.2, 62.7

WARP: 10.0, 8.2, 6.0, 4.5, 4.1

PA: 773, 691, 584, 498, 479

2B: 44, 37, 35, 32, 27

     His metrics:

Black Ink: 12 

Gray Ink: 41

HoF Monitor: 39

HoF Standards: 20

     His ten most similar players are Terry Moore, Lee Lacy, Darryl Hamilton, Ira Flagstead, Al Bumbry, Terry Puhl, Roy Johnson, Lonnie Smith, Brian McRae, and Jack Smith. His age analysis:

23. Rich Coggins

24. Amos Otis

25. Amos Otis

26. Chad Curtis

27. Marquis Grissom

28. Coco Crisp

29. Terry Moore

30. Terry Moore

31. Steve Finley

32. Augie Galan

33. Randy Winn

KELTNER LIST:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

     It was never suggested he was the best player in baseball.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

     He was probably the best Phillie from Schmidt’s retirement in ’89 until after the strike in 1994. 

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

     I think he was the best centerfielder between 1990 and 1994, when he had a little under 24 WAR. His opponents include Kenny Lofton and Brett Butler.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

     He impacted the pennant race in 1986, when he had a great season, and 1993, when he had his second-best season.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

  He retired shortly after one of his best seasons (1994) so I would say no.

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

     No, that would be pitcher Bert Blyleven.

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

     None are.

8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

     Not at all.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

     Much of his career value is centered around forgotten skills such as defense and baserunning so he is often overlooked.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

     Right now I’d say several candidates are better, including Dale Murphy. When they’re eligible, Carlos beltra, Andruw Jones, Jim Edmond, Ken Griffey Jr., Kenny Lofton, and others will all be more qualified. Fred lynn, Jim Wynn, and Cesar Cedeno are all also more qualified. He’s not the most qualified centerfielder not in. 

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

     He placed second, ninth, and nineteenth. I’ll give him a vote.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?

     He was a 3-time All Star.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

     Definitely. He had 8.3 WAR in 1990, which is clearly a total that can lead a team to a pennant, and he DID lead the Phillies to the 1993 pennant when he was their best player. 

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

     No.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

     As far as I can tell, yes.

He gets six points.

VERDICT: Dykstra has a far more compelling case than I thought he did when I began this article, but I can’t bring myself to vote for a guy with a really short career, two clear-cut Hall of Fame seasons, and no tack-on seasons afterwards.

 

 

 

 

     Philadelphia Philles Top 5 Centerfielders

1. Don Richard “Put Put” Ashburn; 1948-1959; Ashburn was a very good hitter and fielder over his career who had positive baserunning value, too. With Philadelphia he hit .311/.394/.388 for a 111 OPS+. He had an additional 199 SB, to accompany very good fielding value and solid baserunning value. His best WAR was 6.4, and his best OPS+ 142. His Phillies’ stats: .311/.394/.388/.782/111 over 8223 PA with 2217 H, 22 HR, and 52.3 WAR.

 2. William Robert Hamilton; 1890-1895; Hamilton was a great lead-off hitter and spent majority of his prime as a Phillie. He was a machine as a Phillie with 510 stolen bases in six years as a Phillie. He scored well over 800 Runs in those six seasons, touching 198 one year. Overall he was a decent fielder with tons of speed. His best WAR was 8.7 and his best OPS+ 167. His Phillies’ stats: .360/.468/.459/.927/153 over 3629 PA with 1084 H, 23 H, and 39.4 WAR.

3. Roy Allen Thomas; 1899-1908, 1910-1911; Thomas had a good WA total, a total that puts him in company with Kirby Puckett. Thomas was a great OBP guy with no power, with an OBP 87 points higher than his SLG as a Phillie. His best WAR was 6.9 and his best OPS+ 142. His Phillies’ stats: .295/.421/.334/.755/124 over 5788 PA with 1364 H, 6 HR, and 39.7 WAR.

4. Garry Lee “Secretary of Defense” Maddox; 1975-1986; Maddox was known as a slick fielder with an average-ish bat. He had a average career slash line, with a okay average but an average on base percentage and slugging percentage. As a Phillie he won eight gold gloves. His highest WA was 6.8 and his highest OPS+ was 132. His Phillies’ stats: .284/.320/.409/.729/99 over 5037 PA with 1333 H, 85 HR, and 27.1 WAR.

5. Leonard Kyle “Nails” Dykstra; 1989-1996; Dykstra had a monster 12990 to 1994 stretch as the best Phillies player, peaking at 8.3 WAR with over 20 WAR in that stretch. He OPS+ed 133 during that stretch with great defense and baserunning (139/169 in SB). His highest WAR was 8.3 and his highest OPS+ was 143. His Phillies‘ stats: .289/.388/.422/.810/122 over 3374 PA with 829 H, 51 HR, and 25.1 WAR.

 

The Mets:

 

Here are the Mets current leaders in WAR:

Angel Pagan, 4.8

Johan Santana, 4.4

David Wright, 3.0

R.A. Dickey, 2.6

Two of these four aren’t even in the Mets’ long-term plans, or weren’t entering the year. Francisco Rodriguez is next in line with 2.2, but Ike Davis, Oliver perez, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Jeff Francoeur, Jason Bay, Luis Castillo, Rod Barajas, and Mike Jacobs- the players management envisioned being stars at the beginning of the season- are having dismal seasons, with several posting negative WAR, most posting fewer than 1 WAR, and the best still below 2 WAR.

 

IN: Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Jose Canseco, Harold Baines, Mark McGwire, Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken Jr., Will Clark, Albert Belle, Orel Hershiser, Wade Boggs, Dave Stieb, Dennis Martinez, Dennis Eckersley, Paul Molitor, Lee Smith, Ryne Sandberg, Eddie Murray 

 

 

BORDER 1(I could change my mind still): Andres Galaragga, Robin Ventura, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, David Cone, Mark Grace, Robb Nen, Rod Beck, Bret Saberhagen, Paul O’Neill, John Wetteland, Dwight Gooden, Chili Davis, Darryl Strawberry

 

 

BORDER 2(They aren’t out yet, but their chances of convincing me are bleak): Kevin Appier, Ellis Burks, Ray Lankford, Eric Karros, Dan Plesac, David Justice, Chuck Finley, Ken Caminiti, Bobby Bonilla, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Tony Phillips, Doug Jones, Rick Aguilera, Randy Myers, Cecil Fielder, Kevin Mitchell, Jimmy Key, Joe Carter, Mickey Tettleton, Danny Tartabull, Darren Daulton, Tony Pena, Brett Butler, Fernando Valenzuela, Tim Wallach, Lenny Dykstra

 

 

OUT: Andy Ashby, , Dave Burba, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Mark McLemore, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Fernando Vina, Todd Zeile, Greg Vaughn, Ron Gant, Jesse Orosco, Jay Bell, Jose Rijo, Brady Anderson, Todd Stottlemyre, Chuck Knoblauch, Shawon Dunston, Travis Fryman, Bobby Witt, Devon White, Wally Joyner, Scott Brosius, Jay Buhner, Dante Bichette, Ramon Martinez, Alex Fernandez, Gary DiSarcina, Walt Weiss, Gregg Jeffries, Gary Gaetti, Hal Morris, Ozzie Guillen, Otis Nixon, Mark Langston, Terry Steinbach, Jeff Montgomery, Jack McDowell, Jim Abbott, Willie McGee, Bob Tewksbury, Danny Darwin, Terry Pendleton, Juan Samuel, Doug Drabek, Jim Eisenreich, Todd Worrell, Mitch Williams, Danny Jackson, Mark Davis, Rick Honeycutt, Sid Fernandez, Vince Coleman, Darryl Kile, Robby Thompson, Scott Sanderson, Jeff Russell, Mike Henneman

 

     -Anthony

 

 

 

This blog will consist of a section on Tim Wallach.

 

 

 

 

    Timothy Charles Wallach was a third baseman for the Montreal Expos, Los Angeles Dodgers and California Angels from 1980 to 1996. Wallach’s career statline includes 2212 games played, 8908 Plate Appearances, 8099 At Bats, 908 Runs, 2085 Hits, 432 Doubles, 36 Triples, 260 Home Runs, 1125 Runs Batted In, 51 Stolen Bases in 117 attempts, .257 Batting Average, .316 On Base Percentage, .416 Slugging Percentage, 102 OPS+, .732 OPS, 3369 Total Bases, 31.4 WAR, 14.4 BtRuns, 1.3 BtWins, .059 IsoD, .159 IsoP, .320 wOBA, 102 wRC+, -4.2 wRAA, 1018.3 wRC, and 50 WARP. Wallach was a 5-time All Star, 3-time Gold Glover, and 2-time Silver Slugger. He recieved MVP votes on three occasions, twice in the top-10.

     Wallach began his career in 1980. He had a very short, 12 PA stint in 1980, where he had 1 HR with 2 RBI. In 1981, Wallach enjoyed a short rookie campaign where he had 4 HR with 13 RBI. Over more than 200 PA, he hit .236/.299/.344. His batting was certainly not very good, but he was still pretty young at 23. In his first full season in ’82, Wallach hit .268/.313/.471 showing impressive power over a full season’s worth of PA. He had 28 HR with 97 RBI and a 115 OPS+. His wRC+ was even a little higher at 118. He clubbed 31 2B with 281 TB. He enjoyed a quite fine season in 1983 where his OBP rose significantly and his SLG dropped significantly. His 114 wRC+ was a bit lower, and he had two more PA than in 1982 (647 to 645).

     Wallach had a poor 1984 where his SLG fell below .400 and his OBP was barely above .300. His .246/.311/.395 line was pretty ugly, and resulted in a 101 OPS+, but a 98 wRC+. Strangely, his OBP was nearly identical in 1984, 1985, and 1986. He had a .310 OBP overall for that time period- .311, .310, and .308- and a .414 SLG- including SLG’s on .395 and .396 in ’84 & ’86. Tim Wallach had two “best” season- a best offensive season and one which was based around defense, but less reliable. Some metrics rate Wallach as a well above average fielder, and, in fact, most of his WAR is from fielding. He had an averageish bat but a good glove. His best two seasons:

1987:

153 G

644 PA

593 AB

89 R

177 H

42 2B

4 3B

26 HR

123 RBI

9/14 SB

.298 AVG

.343 OBP

.514 SLG

121 OPS+

4.2 WAR

17.1 BtRuns

1.6 BtWins

99.4 wRC

20.3 wRAA

.364 wOBA

124 wRC+

5.4 WARP

His other best season is 1985:

155 G

617 PA

569 AB

70 R

148 H

36 2B

3 3B

22 HR

81 RBI

9/18 SB

.260 AVG

.310 OBP

.450 SLG

115 OPS+

5.5 WAR

10.0 BtRuns

1.0 BtWins

74.0 wRC

3.9 wRAA

.326 wOBA

107 wRC+

5.9 WARP

     Wallach had a decent prime and peak. From ’85-’90, Tim Wallach had a 111 OPS+ with a .324 OBP and .442 SLG. He hit 112 HR. He had 21.3 WAR over that time period. I’d define his prime as ’82-’94. He had 31.2 WAR, or almost his whole career concentrated in his prime. As far as awards go:

     He was an All-Star in 1984, 1985, 1987, 1989, and 1990. He won Gold Gloves in 1985, 1988, and 1990. He won a Silver Slugger in 1985 and 1987. He placed 4th in the 1987 National League Most Valuable Player hunt, behind Andre Dawson, Ozzie Smith, and Jack Clark. He placed ahead of WIll Clark, Darryl Strawberry, Tim Raines, Tony Gwynn, Eric Davis, Howard Johnson, Dale Murphy, Vince Coleman, Juan Samuel, Mike Schmidt, Pedro Guerrero, Steve Bedrosian, Milt Thompson, Bill Doran, and Terry Pendleton. Here’s a quick WAR glance:

Tony Gwynn (8.1)

Eric Davis (8.0)

Dale Murphy (7.5)

Ozzie Smith (7.1)

Tim Raines (6.8)

Darryl Strawberry (6.7)

Jack Clark (6.5)

Mike Schmidt (5.6)

Pedro Guerrero (5.0)

Will Clark (4.6)

Howard Johnson (4.5)

Tim Wallach (4.2)

Bill Doran (4.1)

Terry Pendleton (3.6)

Milt Thompson (3.3)

Vince Coleman (3.2)

Juan Samuel (3.0)

Andre Dawson (2.7)

Steve Bedrosian (2.5)

Of all the candidates, only Bedrosian had a lower WAR than the winner, Dawson.

     In 1990, Wallach finished 10th in the NL MVP hunt. He trailed Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonilla, Darryl Strawberry, Ryne Sandberg, Eddie Murray, Matt Williams, Barry Larkin, Doug Drabek, and Lenny Dykstra. His 3.7 WAR tied with Bobby Bonilla as the worst of the top-10 in the MVP hunt. He ranked ahead of Kevin Mitchell, Eric Davis, Chris Sabo, Ron Gant, Dwight Gooden, Ramon Martinez, Joe Carter, Randy Myers, Andre Dawson, Paul O’Neill, Jose Rijo, Dave Magadan, Benito Santiago, David Justice, Brett Butler, Pedro Guerrero, Kal Daniels, and Andy Van Slyke. His WAR tied him with Martinez and Mitchell, ahead of everybody but Gant, Rijo, Magadan, Butler, Daniels, and Van Slyke. Joe Carter had a -1.4 WAR, 11.1 behind Barry Bonds. He finished 18th in the NL MVP vote in 1994. In the strike-shortened season, Jeff Bagwell, Matt Williams, Moises Alou, Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux, Mike Piazza, Tony Gwynn, Fred McGriff, Kevin Mitchell, Andres Galarraga, Larry Walker, Marquis Grissom, Ken Hill, Dante Bichette, Hal Morris, Craig Biggio, Gregg Jeffries, and Jeff Conine. He ranked ahead of John Franco, Bret Boone, Andy Benes, Brett Butler, and Bret Saberhagen. 

     His top five’s:

G: 161, 160, 159, 158, 156

PA: 678, 647, 645, 644, 643

AB: 626, 596, 593, 592, 582

R: 89, 89, 76, 70, 69

H: 185, 177, 160, 159, 156

2B: 42, 42, 37, 36, 33

3B: 5, 5, 4, 4, 3

HR: 28, 26, 23, 22, 21

RBI: 123, 98, 97, 81, 78

SB: 9, 9, 8, 6, 6

AVG: .298, .296, .280, .277, .269

OBP: .356, .343, .341, .339, .335

SLG: .514, .502, .471, .471, .450

OPS+: 127, 125, 121, 115, 115

TB: 305, 295, 281, 256, 252

BtRuns: 20.2, 17.1, 16.4, 12.8, 10.2

BtWins: 2.0, 1.6, 1.6, 1.4, 1.0

WAR: 5.5, 4.2, 3.8, 3.7, 3.4

wRC: 99.4, 91.5, 84.9, 82.2, 78.8

wRAA: 20.3, 15.7, 13.9, 12.4, 9.3 

wOBA: .368, .364, .349, .343, .337

wRC+: 130, 124, 123, 118, 116

WARP: 7.3, 5.9, 5.4, 5.2, 4.7

  His metrics:

Black Ink: 4

Gray Ink: 45

HoF Monitor: 47

HoF Standards: 24

     His ten most similar players are Todd Zeile, Brian Downing, B.J. Surhoff, Sal Bando, George Hendrick, Ron Cey, Robin Ventura, Larry Parrish, Ruben Sierra, and Ken Boyer. his age analysis:

24. Devon White

25. Ron Gant

26. Doug Rader

27. Sal Bando

28. Doug Rader

29. Jim Presley

30. Sal Bando

31. Willie Jones

32. Gary Gaetti

33. Gary Gaetti

34. Gary Gaetti

35. Todd Zeile

36. Todd Zeile

37. Todd Zeile

38. Todd Zeile

     He is similar to a few guys who have compelling cases (Ventura, Sierra, Boyer) but for the most part he’s not really in HoF territory amongst similar players.

KELTNER LIST:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

     No, not at all. 

2. Was he the best player on his team?

     He was one of the best players on the Expos from ’85-’90 and that six year span gets him a yes. 

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

     He was behind a slew of other third basemen including Gaetti, Ventura, Schmidt, Boggs, Brett, Caminiti, and Williams.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

     No.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

   He was a good enough player, and after his prime ended in 1990 he continued to play regularly for several more seasons, gathering almost 3000 PA from 1991 to the end of his career in 1996.

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

     No, that would be pitcher Bert Blyleven.

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

     None are.

8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

     Not at all.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

     No.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

     No, that’s Circle Me Bert Blyleven. 

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

     He was close in one season (4th) and kind of close in one other (10th). He got votes once other time, placing 18th.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?

     He was a 5-time All Star.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

     Probably not. He topped 4 WAR just twice and was a perennial 2-3.5 WAR player, one which is not good enough to lead a team to a pennant.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

     No.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

     As far as I can tell, yes.

He gets 5 points.

VERDICT: Tim Wallach was a very good player for some time, a likeable player, but not a player of teammate Tim Raines’ caliber. Wallach had some good seasons and some awful seasons. He misses my cut for my Hall of Fame, but he doesn’t get flat out rejected like other players.

     The Mets are in trouble right now. They’re falling off and are playing a regular lineup of Thole/Blanco, Ike Davis, Ruben Tejada, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Angel Pagan, Fernando Martinez, and Carlos Beltran. When Thole plays and Jonathan Niese pitches, Carlos Beltran is the only player who didn’t rise through the system.

IN: Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Jose Canseco, Harold Baines, Mark McGwire, Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken Jr., Will Clark, Albert Belle, Orel Hershiser, Wade Boggs, Dave Stieb, Dennis Martinez, Dennis Eckersley, Paul Molitor, Lee Smith, Ryne Sandberg, Eddie Murray 

 

 

BORDER 1(I could change my mind still): Andres Galaragga, Robin Ventura, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, David Cone, Mark Grace, Robb Nen, Rod Beck, Bret Saberhagen, Paul O’Neill, John Wetteland, Dwight Gooden, Chili Davis, Darryl Strawberry

 

 

BORDER 2(They aren’t out yet, but their chances of convincing me are bleak): Kevin Appier, Ellis Burks, Ray Lankford, Eric Karros, Dan Plesac, David Justice, Chuck Finley, Ken Caminiti, Bobby Bonilla, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Tony Phillips, Doug Jones, Rick Aguilera, Randy Myers, Cecil Fielder, Kevin Mitchell, Jimmy Key, Joe Carter, Mickey Tettleton, Danny Tartabull, Darren Daulton, Tony Pena, Brett Butler, Fernando Valenzuela, Tim Wallach

 

 

OUT: Andy Ashby, , Dave Burba, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Mark McLemore, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Fernando Vina, Todd Zeile, Greg Vaughn, Ron Gant, Jesse Orosco, Jay Bell, Jose Rijo, Brady Anderson, Todd Stottlemyre, Chuck Knoblauch, Shawon Dunston, Travis Fryman, Bobby Witt, Devon White, Wally Joyner, Scott Brosius, Jay Buhner, Dante Bichette, Ramon Martinez, Alex Fernandez, Gary DiSarcina, Walt Weiss, Gregg Jeffries, Gary Gaetti, Hal Morris, Ozzie Guillen, Otis Nixon, Mark Langston, Terry Steinbach, Jeff Montgomery, Jack McDowell, Jim Abbott, Willie McGee, Bob Tewksbury, Danny Darwin, Terry Pendleton, Juan Samuel, Doug Drabek, Jim Eisenreich, Todd Worrell, Mitch Williams, Danny Jackson, Mark Davis, Rick Honeycutt, Sid Fernandez, Vince Coleman, Darryl Kile, Robby Thompson, Scott Sanderson, Jeff Russell, Mike Henneman

 

               -Anthony

This blog will be about Mike Henneman and his Hall of Fame prospects.

 

 

 

     Michael Alan Henneman was a relief pitcher for the Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, and Texas Rangers from 1987 to 1996. He had 57 career wins and 42 career losses. Henneman pitched 732.2 innings over the course of his career, striking out 533 batters (a 6.5 K rate) whilst walking 271 men (3.3/9). Oddly enough, Henneman had 193 SV. He had a career 3.21 ERA, or a 131 ERA+. Henneman accumulated merely 12.5 WAR. Mike had 22.8 WARP and an EqERA of 3.64. His FIP was 3.45. Henneman was a decent reliever with a few solid seasons. He was never spectacular, despite his career 131 ERA+. He was an All-Star once and recieved votes for the Rookie of the Year once.

     In his first year, 1987, Mike Henneman went 11-3. He finished twenty-eight games over just shy of 100 innings pitched, having a 143 ERA+ and 1.200 WHIP. His 1.6 WAR was solid, sort of respectable. His strand rate slightly better than his career rate, his BABIP was slightly worse than his career rate. In 1988 Henneman went 9-6 over roughly 90 innings with a 1.87 ERA. That’s a 207 ERA+. And he had a spectacular WHIP as well. He had 3.1 WAR in the season. He finished 51 games out of his 65 appearances. His FIP was 3.35, but his strand rate was amazing at over 85. He was credited with 5.0 WARP that season. From ’87-’91, his first five years, he had a 2.90 ERA, which when adjusted for context is a 140 ERA+.

     Henneman had a decent prime, which I’ll define as ’88-’93. Over that time he had over 500 IP with a 134 ERA+. His absolute peak was ’87-’91, as previously mentioned. He really came into his own in 1988, having several 20-save seasons. He had a lot of 1-2 WA seasons to compile upon his already mediocre career value. Here is a quick glance at yearly WAR:

     _th best season——–WAR

     1——————————3.1

     2——————————2.5

     3——————————1.9

     4——————————1.9

     5——————————1.8

     6——————————1.6

     7——————————0.2

     8——————————0.1

     9—————————- -0.1

     10————————– -0.5

 

      In 1987, Henneman ranked well in the Rookie of the Year vote. The deserving winner took first place: Mark McGwire, who hit 49 HR. In second place was Kevin Seitzer, who had 4.3 WAR. McGwire had over 5 WAR. Matt Nokes and Mike Greenwell finished next, both hovering around 3 WAR. Devon White placed in fifth place despite having 5 WAR, a respectable total. Mike Henneman and Nelson Liriano had 1.6 and 0.6 WAR, respectively. Here are the batting lines for the candidates other than Henneman (the only pitcher):

Mark McGwire: .289/.370/.618, 49 HR, 118 RBI, 97 R, 641 PA, 5.4 WAR

Kevin Seitzer: .323/.399/.470, 15 HR, 83 RBI, 105 R, 725 PA, 4.3 WAR

Matt Nokes: .289/.345/.536, 32 HR, 87 RBI, 69 R, 508 PA, 3.1 WAR

Mike Greenwell: .328/.386/.570, 19 HR, 89 RBI, 71 R, 456 PA, 3.7 WAR

Devon White: .263/.306/.443, 24 HR, 87 RBI, 103 R, 696 PA, 5.0 WAR

Mike Henneman: 11-3, 143 ERA+, 1.200 WHIP, 96.2 IP, 1.6 WAR

Nelson Liriano: .241/.310/.342, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 29 R, 176 PA, 0.6 WAR

 

     Mike Henneman’s best season was 1988, as previously mentioned:

W: 9

L: 6

ERA: 1.87

IP: 91.1

SV: 22

ERA+: 207

WHIP: 1.051

K/BB: 2.42

K/9: 5.7

BB/9: 2.4

K: 58

BB: 24

     His top five’s:

W: 11, 11, 10, 9, 8

L: 7, 6, 6, 6, 4

ERA: 1.87, 2.15, 2.64, 2.88, 2.98

ERA+: 208, 207, 164, 146, 143

IP: 96.2, 94.1, 91.1, 90.0, 84.1

WHIP: 1.051, 1.152, 1.2001.228, 1.304

WARP: 5.0, 3.9, 3.0, 2.9, 2.7

WAR: 3.1, 1.9, 1.9, 1.9, 1.8

K: 75, 69, 61, 58, 58

K/9: 7.7, 7.3, 7.0, 6.9, 6.8

BB/9: 2.3, 2.3, 2.4, 2.8, 3.1

K/BB: 3.31, 2.90, 2.50, 2.42, 1.81

FIP: 2.55, 2.93, 3.07, 3.35, 3.42

SV: 31, 26, 24, 24, 22

GF: 53, 53, 51, 50, 50

     His metrics:

Black Ink: 0

Gray Ink: 11

HoF Monitor: 26

HoF Standards: 15

     He doesn’t pass any of the tests used for induction.

     His similar ten players are Jay Howell, Dave Smith, Jack Aker, Keith Foulke, Todd Worrell, Steve Farr, Bob Locker, Dick Radatz, Gregg Olson, and Jeff Brantley. His age analysis:

26. Bill Dawley

27. Jeff Brantley

28. Cecil Upshaw

29. Frank Linzy

30. Dick Radatz

31. Dick Radatz

32. Jack Aker

33. Jeff Brantley

34. Keith Foulke

KELTNER LIST:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

     No, not at all. 

2. Was he the best player on his team?

     Players better than him each year:

     1987: Walt Terrell, Jack Morris, Frank Tanana, Doyle Alexander, Chet Lemon, Lou Whitaker, Matt Nokes, Alan Trammell, Darrell Evans, and Kirk Gibson.

     1988: Alan Trammell, and Lou Whitaker.

     1989: Lou Whitaker, Alan Trammell, Doyle Alexander, and Frank Tanana.

     1990: Lou Whitaker, Alan Trammell, Cecil Fielder, and Chet Lemon.

     1991: Frank Tanana, Alan Trammell, Travis Fryman, Cecil Fielder, Milt Cuyler, Tony Phillips, Mickey Tettleton, and Lou Whitaker. 

     1992: Rob Deer, Mickey Tettleton, Tony Phillips, Lou Whitaker, Travis Fryman, and Cecil Fielder. 

     1993: Chad Kreuter, David Wells, Tony Phillips, Travis Fryman, Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, and Mickey Tettleton.

     1994: David Wells, Mike Moore, Lou Whitaker, Tony Phillips, Travis Fryman, and Cecil Fielder.

     1995: Felipe Lira, David Wells, Travis Fryman, Craig Biggio, and Jeff Bagwell. 

     1996: Ken Hill, Ivan Rodriguez, Rusty Greer, Mark McLemore, and Juan Gonzalez.  

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

     He was never the best player in baseball in his position.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

     No.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

   He was not a good enough player to continue playing at a respectable level after his prime for an extended period of time.

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

     No, that would be a fellow pitcher, Bert Blyleven.

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

     None are.

8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

     Not at all.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

     No.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

     No, that’s Circle Me Bert Blyleven. 

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

     He was never even remotely close.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?

     He was a 1-time All Star.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

     Definitely not. He was never really that great and never, by far, the best player on a team full of stars (Evans, Gibson, Trammell, Fielder, Whitaker, specifically)

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

     No.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

     As far as I can tell, yes.

He gets 1 point.

VERDICT: He was a middle-of-the-road reliever with a decent save total that pales in comparison to today’s game. So, yeah, he doesn’t get in or get close.

 

The Mets: I just would like to say that if Jerry Manuel doesn’t consistently start Angel Pagan (.306/.364/.459) in right-field upon the return of superstar centerfielder Carlos Beltran, the Mets will cost themselves at least a win or two over the course of the rest of the season.  

 

IN: Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Jose Canseco, Harold Baines, Mark McGwire, Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken Jr., Will Clark, Albert Belle, Orel Hershiser, Wade Boggs, Dave Stieb, Dennis Martinez, Dennis Eckersley, Paul Molitor, Lee Smith, Ryne Sandberg, Eddie Murray 

 

 

BORDER 1(I could change my mind still): Andres Galaragga, Robin Ventura, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, David Cone, Mark Grace, Robb Nen, Rod Beck, Bret Saberhagen, Paul O’Neill, John Wetteland, Dwight Gooden, Chili Davis, Darryl Strawberry

 

 

BORDER 2(They aren’t out yet, but their chances of convincing me are bleak): Kevin Appier, Ellis Burks, Ray Lankford, Eric Karros, Dan Plesac, David Justice, Chuck Finley, Ken Caminiti, Bobby Bonilla, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Tony Phillips, Doug Jones, Rick Aguilera, Randy Myers, Cecil Fielder, Kevin Mitchell, Jimmy Key, Joe Carter, Mickey Tettleton, Danny Tartabull, Darren Daulton, Tony Pena, Brett Butler, Fernando Valenzuela

 

 

OUT: Andy Ashby, , Dave Burba, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Mark McLemore, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Fernando Vina, Todd Zeile, Greg Vaughn, Ron Gant, Jesse Orosco, Jay Bell, Jose Rijo, Brady Anderson, Todd Stottlemyre, Chuck Knoblauch, Shawon Dunston, Travis Fryman, Bobby Witt, Devon White, Wally Joyner, Scott Brosius, Jay Buhner, Dante Bichette, Ramon Martinez, Alex Fernandez, Gary DiSarcina, Walt Weiss, Gregg Jeffries, Gary Gaetti, Hal Morris, Ozzie Guillen, Otis Nixon, Mark Langston, Terry Steinbach, Jeff Montgomery, Jack McDowell, Jim Abbott, Willie McGee, Bob Tewksbury, Danny Darwin, Terry Pendleton, Juan Samuel, Doug Drabek, Jim Eisenreich, Todd Worrell, Mitch Williams, Danny Jackson, Mark Davis, Rick Honeycutt, Sid Fernandez, Vince Coleman, Darryl Kile, Robby Thompson, Scott Sanderson, Jeff Russell

 

           -Anthony 

 

 

This next blog is about the third candidate on the 2002 ballot, Jeff Russell. It will consist solely of a Jeff Russell analysis.

 

 

 

 

     Jeffrey Lee Russell was a relief pitcher for the Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Oakland Athletics, and Cleveland Indians from 1983 to 1996. His career statistics include 56 Wins, 73 Losses, a 3.75 ERA, 1099.2 IP, 186 Saves, a 112 ERA+, 1.346 WHIP, 693 Strikeouts, 415 Walks, 1.67 K/BB, a 71.9 strand rate, a 3.96 FIP, a 3.4 BB rate, a 5.67 K rate, 24.3 WARP, a 4.28 EqERA, and 14.5 WAR. He was a 2-time All-Star and recieved Cy Young votes once. He was your average reliever, probably no better than tenth if his career was lined up with those of current relievers, with Hoffman, K-Rod, Nathan, Wagner, Percival, Rivera, Papelbon, Cordero, and Lidge in the league.

     Jeff’s career started in 1983. That year he pitched 68 and a third innings, striking out a career norm 40 batters. Russell was solely a starting pitcher that season, making ten starts averaging nearly 7 innings per start. His 126 ERA+ was a fine number, but his BABIP that year was .036 below what his career average ended up being. His strand rate was slightly worse than his eventual career strand rate, so it probably was only a little luck induced. His career ERA+ was 112 so that 126 doesn’t seem all that absurd when you consider he was a little lucky compared to his career. In 1984 Russell made his first three appearances in relief, starting 30 games, relieving 3. He led the league in Losses with 18, and had an 89 ERA+. His FIP was one point lower than his previous season yet his ERA rose over a full run.

     In 1983 Russell accumulated 0.9 WAR, and he accumulated 1.3 WAR in 1984. His luck hit rock-bottom in 1985. He had his worst season ever, with a .364 BABIP, his ERA+ dropped below 60 as a result of an ERA north of 7. From 1986 to 1989, Russell began to excel. His ERA over those four seasons was 3.57, his WAR was 5.6, his ERA+ wa 118, and his WHIP was pretty solid at 1.325. From 1990 onward he pitched seven seasons at a clip of 142 ERA+. He had a 149 ERA+ after becoming a full-time reliever in 1989. He had 143 saves over these seven seasons, seeing most of the good years bottled into these seven short seasons. His finest season, by far, was 1989:

6 W

4 L

1.98 ERA

71 G

66 GF

38 SV

72.2 IP

45 H

16 ER

4 HR

24 BB

77 K

201 ERA+

0.950 WHIP

5.6 H/9

0.5 HR/9

3 BB/9

9.5 K/9

3.21 K/BB

2.47 FIP

2.5 WAR

4.6 WARP

.180 BAA

     Russell was an All-Star in 1988 and 1989. He was 9th in the American League Cy Young hunt in 1989, leading the league in Saves. Ahead of Jeff were Bret Saberhagen, Dave Stewart, Mike Moore, Bert Blyleven, Nolan Ryan, Jeff Ballard, Dennis Eckersley, and Gregg Olson. A quick WAR analysis gives us this:

Saberhagen: 8.6

Blyleven: 5.5

Moore: 5.2

Ryan: 4.6

Olson: 3.6

Stewart: 3.4

Russell: 2.5

Eckersely: 2.4

Ballard: 2.3

     A quick ERA & Innings glance gives us this:

Eckersley: 1.56 & 57.2

Olson: 1.69 & 85.0

Russell: 1.98 & 72.2

Saberhagen: 2.16 & 262.1

Moore: 2.61 & 241.2

Blyleven: 2.73 & 241.0

Ryan: 3.20 & 239.1

Stewart: 3.32 & 257.2

Ballard: 3.43 & 215.1

     I think this gives us a pretty good look at how it should have gone. I would say Russell was clearly behind Olson, Saberhagen, Blyleven, Ryan, Moore, and Stewart. I’d say he’s clearly ahead of Eckersley and in Ballard’s neighborhood. Saberhagen was the clear-cut winner of the award- it would have been a catastrophe had anybody else won the AL Cy Young. Here are Jeff’s top five’s:

W: 10, 6, 6, 6, 5

L: 18, 9, 6, 6, 5

SV: 38, 33, 30, 30, 20

IP: 188.2, 181.2, 97.1, 82.0, 79.1

ERA (Min. 50 IP): 1.63, 1.98, 3.03, 3.29, 3.38

ERA+: 237, 201, 157, 127, 126

WHIP: 0.950, 1.171, 1.206, 1.223, 1.280

FIP: 2.47, 3.15, 3.87, 3.88, 4.03

WAR: 2.9, 2.5, 2.3, 1.6, 1.4

WARP: 4.6, 4.5, 2.8, 2.1, 2.1

K: 101, 88, 77, 56, 54

BB: 66, 65, 52, 31, 27

K/9: 9.5, 6.5, 6.4, 5.9, 5.9

K/BB: 3.21, 2.00, 1.92, 1.82, 1.74

     His metrics:

Black Ink: 3

Gray Ink: 21

HoF Monitor: 34

HoF Standards: 7

     His ten most similar players are Jim Gott, Tom Hume, Neil Allen, Ted Abernathy, Jay  Howell,  Doug Bair,  Roger McDowell,  Jeff Brantley,  Ted Power, and Orlando Pena. His age analysis:

22. Pete Broberg

23. Jim Gott

24. Dan Spillner

25. Milt Wilcox

26. Bob Anderson

27. Mike Fornieles

28. Jim Gott

29. Neil Allen

30. Neil Allen

31. Jeff Robinson

32. Tom Hume

33. Jim Gott

34. Jim Gott

KELTNER LIST:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

     No, not at all. 

2. Was he the best player on his team?

     Mario Soto was far better in 1983. And 1984. Charlie Hough was FAR better in 1985. Greg Harris was the best reliever on Texas in 1986. Charlie Hough and Dale Mohorcic were better in ’87, at least.Hough was also better in 1988.Nolan Ryan was much better in 1989, Kevin Brown was slightly more valuable, and both Julio Franco and Ruben Sierra were much, much, much more valuable. In 1990, Rafael Palmeiro (131 OPS+, 650 PA) was better. Kevin Brown, Nolan Ryan, Bobby Witt, Kenny Rogers, and Charlie Hough were all better pitchers. Steve Buechele, Brian Downing, Julio Franco, Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro, Ruben Sierra, Kevin Brown, Juan Guzman, and Nolan Ryan were all better in ’91. Rafael Palmeiro, Jua Gonzalez, Ivan Rodriguez, and Kevin Brown were all far better in ’92. Mark McGwire and Rickey Henderson had MVP-caliber seasons with Texas. Mo Vaughn, Frank Viola, Danny Darwin, Roger Clemens, Mike Greenwell, Scott Fletcher, Scott Cooper, John Valentin, and Aaron Sele were all better in ’93. Roger Clemens was dominant in ’94. Kenny Rogers was much better in ’95, and Juan Gonzalez was the AL MVP in ’96.  

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

     He was never the best closer. Gregg Olson was better than him in 1989- his best season.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

     His career postseason stats? 5 innings. 4 walks. 1 strikeout. .25 K/BB. 7.2 BB/9. 5.40 ERA. 1.800 WHIP. Not so good. No.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

     If you define his prime as ’88-’92 (8.9 WAR) then he had 4.3 WAR over 176 IP after his prime. But he had 1.6 WAR in his final season to back up this point even further. He was very consistent. I’ll give the point.

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

     No, that would be a fellow pitcher, Bert Blyleven.

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

     None are.

8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

     Not at all.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

     No.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

     No, that’s Circle Me Bert Blyleven. 

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

     He was never even remotely close.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?

     He was a 2-time All Star.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

     Definitely not. The only time he was remotely close to being the best player on his team was 1989 (It was his finest season) and the Rangers didn’t do so good, finishing last with 83 wins.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

     No.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

     As far as I can tell, yes. 

So Russell gets 2 points.

VERDICT: Jeff Russell was a solid reliever for roughly 1100 innings but he was nothing extraordinary, an averageish reliever (as noted by his 14.5 career WAR).

 

     Figured I’d do an update on David Wright. He was hitting .294/.382/.519 at the last update in late June. Now it’s the All Star break and Wright is hitting .314/.392/.532 over 378 PA, and has been one of the most valuable players in MLB with 3.9 WAR already. Since June 25th he is 23/60 with 31 total bases. He has been on base 27/65 times. He has been gold lately, and gold on the year.

 

IN: Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Jose Canseco, Harold Baines, Mark McGwire, Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken Jr., Will Clark, Albert Belle, Orel Hershiser, Wade Boggs, Dave Stieb, Dennis Martinez, Dennis Eckersley, Paul Molitor, Lee Smith, Ryne Sandberg, Eddie Murray 

 

 

BORDER 1(I could change my mind still): Andres Galaragga, Robin Ventura, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, David Cone, Mark Grace, Robb Nen, Rod Beck, Bret Saberhagen, Paul O’Neill, John Wetteland, Dwight Gooden, Chili Davis, Darryl Strawberry

 

 

BORDER 2(They aren’t out yet, but their chances of convincing me are bleak): Kevin Appier, Ellis Burks, Ray Lankford, Eric Karros, Dan Plesac, David Justice, Chuck Finley, Ken Caminiti, Bobby Bonilla, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Tony Phillips, Doug Jones, Rick Aguilera, Randy Myers, Cecil Fielder, Kevin Mitchell, Jimmy Key, Joe Carter, Mickey Tettleton, Danny Tartabull, Darren Daulton, Tony Pena, Brett Butler, Fernando Valenzuela

 

 

OUT: Andy Ashby, , Dave Burba, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Mark McLemore, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Fernando Vina, Todd Zeile, Greg Vaughn, Ron Gant, Jesse Orosco, Jay Bell, Jose Rijo, Brady Anderson, Todd Stottlemyre, Chuck Knoblauch, Shawon Dunston, Travis Fryman, Bobby Witt, Devon White, Wally Joyner, Scott Brosius, Jay Buhner, Dante Bichette, Ramon Martinez, Alex Fernandez, Gary DiSarcina, Walt Weiss, Gregg Jeffries, Gary Gaetti, Hal Morris, Ozzie Guillen, Otis Nixon, Mark Langston, Terry Steinbach, Jeff Montgomery, Jack McDowell, Jim Abbott, Willie McGee, Bob Tewksbury, Danny Darwin, Terry Pendleton, Juan Samuel, Doug Drabek, Jim Eisenreich, Todd Worrell, Mitch Williams, Danny Jackson, Mark Davis, Rick Honeycutt, Sid Fernandez, Vince Coleman, Darryl Kile, Robby Thompson, Scott Sanderson, Jeff Russell

 

                 -Anthony 

I’ve been away for a really long time, almost six months, so I’ll pick up immediately where I left off, right after Robby Thompson. The next candidate is Scott Sanderson.

 

 

 

 

     Scott Douglas Sanderson was a starting pitcher for the Montreal Expos, Chicago Cubs, California Angels, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, Oakland Athletics, and Chicago White Sox from 1978 to 1996. Sanderson had a career record of 163-143, pitching 2561.2 innings over the course of his career. He pitched to the tune of a 3.84 ERA, or a 102 ERA+. He had a 1.255 WHIP, or a 9.1 H/9 and 2.2 BB/9 rate. He had a measley 5.7 K rate with 1611 strikeouts. He threw 43 compete games, 14 of them shutouts. He has 28.0 WAR and 27.8 WARP so it’s probably pretty accurate if two different versions of value show virtually identical conclusions. His career fielding-independent pitching is a solid 3.83. He was a 1-time All-Star.

     Scott’s career began in 1978. He pitched about sixty innings with a 2.51 ERA. His K rate sat at a respectable 7.4. He had relative control issues which resulted in a 3.1 BB rate. Sanderson went 4-2 over sixty innings which is about 13 or 14 and 7 over a full season’s innings. Sanderson was worth 1 WAR that season and 0.8 WARP. From 1979 to 1982 Sanderson went through a good stretch of ball. He pitched 740 total innings with a 3.26 ERA, or a 111 ERA+. He had a 6.1 K/9 over that time with a 2.4 BB/9 and a 1.198 WHIP. He had 498 K’s over 740 IP. He went 46-38 which is respectable, but W-L record is pretty much team-dependent, which is why I like to look at his individual stats such as WHIP, K rate, BB rate, and others. ERA is known to fluctuate from season to season but for the most part BB rate and K rate stay consistent on a year-to-year basis.

     1983 was a mess of a season for Sanderson. He stranded a career low up to that point of 67%. His Batting Average on Balls In Play rose 43 points over his previous career high, and his other stats suffered as a result- a 1.451 WHIP, a 78 ERA+, a 4.65 ERA, despite a .02 drop in K rate, a .01 drop in BB rate, and a .03 drop in K/BB. He never really had it after 1983 like he did before. he next two years were his only remaining productive seasons- he had a 3.13 ERA over 261 IP for a 125 ERA+. He had a 1.112 WHIP over this time, his age 27 and 28 seasons.

     From ’86-’88, Sanderson struggled. He had a 96 ERA+ total with a 1.286 WHIP. He didn’t see much fluctuation in his K rate 6.4 but his BB rate was way up to 2.5. These numbers were dragged down by an abysmal 1988 with an ERA north of 5, but still, Sanderson was in a funk. Sanderson’s best season came in 1991:

16 W

10 L

3.81 ERA

208 IP

130 K

29 BB

1.101 WHIP

109 ERA+

4.48 K/BB

3.44 FIP

.254 BAA

4.5 WARP

3.7 WAR

     Sanderson was an all-star that season- his lone all-star appearance. His top five’s, with rates minimum 100 IP:

W: 17, 16, 16, 12, 12 

ERA: 2.95, 3.11, 3.12, 3.14, 3.43 

IP: 224.0, 211.1, 208.0, 206.1, 193.1

FIP: 2.70, 3.12, 3.35, 3.43, 3.44

WAR: 4.2, 3.7, 3.0, 2.8, 2.7

WARP: 4.5, 4.3, 2.9, 2.9, 2.8

ERA+: 127, 124, 119, 115, 109

K/9: 7.4, 6.6, 6.6, 6.3, 6.0

BB/9: 1.3, 1.5, 1.7, 1.9, 2.0

K/BB: 4.48, 3.35, 3.17, 3.00, 2.96

WHIP: 1.050, 1.101, 1.114, 1.166, 1.191

K: 158, 138, 130, 128, 125

     His metrics:

Black Ink: 0

Gray Ink: 41

HoF Monitor: 16

HoF Standards: 22

     His ten similar players are Bill Gullickson, Doug Drabek, Vern Law, Jim Lonborg, Paul Splittorff, John Burkett, Mike Flanagan, Bob Forsch, Burt Hooton, and Rick Rhoden. His age analysis:

22. Matt Morris

23. Jair Jurrjens

24. Kevin Appier

25. Bob Welch

26. Jim Bouton

27. Dock Ellis

28. Jim Bunning

29. Frank Lary

30. Frank Sullivan

31. Chris Bosio

32. Jack Billingham

33. Dave Goltz

34. Mike Boddicker

35. Jim Lonborg

36. Jim Lonborg

37. Jim Lonborg

38. Bob Forsch

39. Mike Flanagan

 

KELTNER LIST:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

     Scott Sanderson was never regarded as the best player in baseball or the best player in either the AL or NL. 

2. Was he the best player on his team?

     His Expos teams had Gary Carter, Larry Parrish, Andre Dawson, Tony Perez, Ellis Valentine and others when he broke in and later had Tim Raines. At pitcher there was Steve Rogers for sure. Bill Lee later joined the ballclub. There’s also Tim Wallach and Al Oliver. Bill Gullickson was better most of the time too. There’s also Jeff Reardon who was phenomenal with the Expos. As a Cub he played with superstars like Ryne Sandberg, Leon Durham, Gary Matthews Sr., Dennis Eckersley, and Rick Sutcliffe in his first year there. He was near the top in ’86 and might have been the best Cub had Ron Cey not played. He also played with an up & coming Jamie Moyer.He played with Mark Grace, Shawon Dunston, and Rafael Palmeiro in 1988. Oh, and some guy named Greg Maddux. Dwight Smith was a one-hit wonder of value in 1989, and Mike Bielecki had his moment of fame, one good season. In 1990 he won 17 games but unfortunately played with Mark McGwire, Jose Canseco, Rickey Henderson, Dave Henderson, and Harold Baines, all of whom were far superior. Oh yeah there was also that pair of guys named Dave Stewart and Bob Welch who won 49 games combined. With the Yankees in 1991 he outperformed Don Mattingly and was about as good as Steve Sax. He finished his glory days by playing alongside the great Frank Thomas in Chicago.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

     He was definitely never the best pitcher in baseball. He never even got a Cy Young vote for what that’s worth.        

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

     1.818 career postseason WHIP. Enough said. No.     

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

     Yes, yes he was. 1991 was his last good season and he extended his career another ~525 innings after that year.

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

     No, that would be a fellow pitcher, Bert Blyleven.

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

     None are.

8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

     Not at all.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

     No.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

     No, that’s Circle Me Bert Blyleven. 

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

     He was never even remotely close.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?

     He was a 1-time All Star.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

     Definitely not. The only time he was remotely close to being the best player on his team was 1991 (I’d say he was the best Yankee that year) and the Yankees didn’t do so good.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

     No.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

     As far as I can tell, yes.

     So Sanderson gets 3 points with that generous 1991 NYY best player mention. He’s right at that best-player level for that season.

VERDICT: Sanderson was a decent pitcher, but nothing extraordinary, so I can’t really see a great reason to put him in. 

 

     My Mets:

   The Mets have been mildly successful so far. Thankfully, David Wright is RAKING again, hitting at a great .294/.382/.519 so far with 12 HR and 57 RBI (a 141 OPS+). Rod Barajas has a .225 ISO resulting in being an above average offensive catcher (11 HR to boot). Ike Davis is on the big league team and hitting average-ishly. Davis is striking out too much and can’t get a hit on balls in play enough to compensate, like Wright can. Angel Pagan is filling in wonderfully for Beltran, who should be back soon. In fact, I would consider starting Pagan in RF when Beltran returns. Franceour is not hitting very well; I would consider trading him, he’s back to old Franceour. Cora, Blanco, Carter, Tatis, and Feliciano form a nice bench with Ruben Tejada. The rotation is solid with R.A. Dickey, Mike Pelfrey, Johan Santana, Jonathan Niese, and Hisanori Takahashi. Elmer Dessens, Pedro Feliciano, and Franisco Rodriguez form a nice group of relievers with Ryoto Igarashi.

    

IN: Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Jose Canseco, Harold Baines, Mark McGwire, Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken Jr., Will Clark, Albert Belle, Orel Hershiser, Wade Boggs, Dave Stieb, Dennis Martinez, Dennis Eckersley, Paul Molitor, Lee Smith, Ryne Sandberg, Eddie Murray 

 

 

BORDER 1(I could change my mind still): Andres Galaragga, Robin Ventura, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, David Cone, Mark Grace, Robb Nen, Rod Beck, Bret Saberhagen, Paul O’Neill, John Wetteland, Dwight Gooden, Chili Davis, Darryl Strawberry

 

 

BORDER 2(They aren’t out yet, but their chances of convincing me are bleak): Kevin Appier, Ellis Burks, Ray Lankford, Eric Karros, Dan Plesac, David Justice, Chuck Finley, Ken Caminiti, Bobby Bonilla, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Tony Phillips, Doug Jones, Rick Aguilera, Randy Myers, Cecil Fielder, Kevin Mitchell, Jimmy Key, Joe Carter, Mickey Tettleton, Danny Tartabull, Darren Daulton, Tony Pena, Brett Butler, Fernando Valenzuela

 

 

OUT: Andy Ashby, , Dave Burba, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Mark McLemore, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Fernando Vina, Todd Zeile, Greg Vaughn, Ron Gant, Jesse Orosco, Jay Bell, Jose Rijo, Brady Anderson, Todd Stottlemyre, Chuck Knoblauch, Shawon Dunston, Travis Fryman, Bobby Witt, Devon White, Wally Joyner, Scott Brosius, Jay Buhner, Dante Bichette, Ramon Martinez, Alex Fernandez, Gary DiSarcina, Walt Weiss, Gregg Jeffries, Gary Gaetti, Hal Morris, Ozzie Guillen, Otis Nixon, Mark Langston, Terry Steinbach, Jeff Montgomery, Jack McDowell, Jim Abbott, Willie McGee, Bob Tewksbury, Danny Darwin, Terry Pendleton, Juan Samuel, Doug Drabek, Jim Eisenreich, Todd Worrell, Mitch Williams, Danny Jackson, Mark Davis, Rick Honeycutt, Sid Fernandez, Vince Coleman, Darryl Kile, Robby Thompson, Scott Sanderson

 

                – Anthony